iiwhistlerii

That’s old news that Montreal was spared anymore flooding at the expense of Lake Ontario and up river residents of the Larry. 

Exactly. And it's been record outflows trying to play catchup ever since.

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What is actually happening and what your being told is not the same. Can you figure it out now?

Well what's happening?

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15 minutes ago, lost a lure said:

50 years living and working here. Do you understand now?

Minds made up no matter what.  I get it.  Understand completely.  So let's hear it..  what has actually happened in the last 36 months?  They stopped letting water through the dam but somehow the flow and level down below remained higher than ever before?  Ears are open to 50 years of knowledge.

4 minutes ago, lost a lure said:

You still don't understand who knows how this actually works and what your being told!

Exactly why I've based my opinion on what I've seen fishing everywhere I've been lucky enough to fish in the last 10 years regularly.  I've experienced the water levels, the increased currents and the changes first hand.  I know it's not bs because I've been the guy waiting at the launch below the dam for the water to rise 10 years ago and I've been the guy watching the water rage through the same area the last 3 years.  While others claim they are holding back water with some conspiracy I'm the one fishing out there that can tell you they most certainly are not.  To each thier own man, get out there and fish.  Lake o was good this am, everywhere has been good.

This is a good video from a lake ontario resident against 2014.  He does a very good job explaining where we took a beating because of the plan and everyone expects this to be the factors NYSDEC uses to back their lawsuit.  He explains the flow limits and why we shouldnt have been forced to take the brunt of the flooding when Montreal should have shared in the misery.  Basically we were sacrificed as the lesser of 2 evils and they want a limit set so that cant happen again.  With a minimum flow established hands will be tied if it happens again and it wont be left up to choice to save one area over the other. 

 

This is my defense for 2014.  Its overall peramiters havent even had a chance yet.  The plan hasnt had a chance to operate how it was designed with what we've been dealing with.  Sadly 4 of the wettest months of all time put it on the ropes twice now and it really may be a better management plan to stabilize river levels and provide a more natural influx on lake ontario.  In the end it is what it is, the lake will continue on its cycles of highs and lows.  We will have low years under 2014 just as we had before.  Only time will tell I guess.  The debate has been entertaining tho.  Nothing like an uphill battle against a bunch of guys who cant get their boat in the water.  

Lmao.  Drive up and go see for yourself cowboy.  The numbers and data come from the army corps of engineers, not the IJC.  30 minutes of actual conversation and face to face explanation and youd probably agree with me as most have.  Usually an explanation presented with facts, including the 4 months where we took it in the ass to save Montreal is all it takes for people to really grasp why we are where we are today.  Reading comprehension isnt everybody's strong suit, I get it.  Not everything is a giant conspiracy.

 
Now you're back peddling. You stated that the higher flows are not possible at the current levels. Fact is you don't know what your talking about!

When they reduce this flow because lake st. Lawrence is reaching minimum levels or lake st. Louis is reaching flood stage in a few days feel free to apologize. I broke it down factually and exactly how it works so you could understand why sustained flows of 10000 arent possible when the lake and upper river are only only as high as they are. I provided you videos, articles, flow charts, water level charts and all the data needed so you could understand and visualize how it all works and still you chose to sling insults. I can only do so much, some guys are just going to let there mind be made up by how high the water is at their dock.

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Feel free to think about it yourself.  Obviously if putting flow below the dam above 10,000 is making the area above the dam drop then the river as a whole isnt keeping up and isnt flowing 10,000.  The reservoir is emptying but the river isnt providing enough water to keep it full at it's current level with these flows.  That's how it works.  If ur debating still it I'm not sure why.   

 

Heres the final summary in my mind and not many who are going after the ijc with ligit thought processes disagree.  Nobody is after the ijc for how they've handled things in the last 7 months.  Since June they've been incredible at managing the system and nobody who understands the system will even try to debate that.  The last 7 months are the highest flows of all time and the most water ever pushed through the system during that time frame.  Fact.  No debate to be had.  The issue, and what Cuomos lawsuit will be based on is what happened in april and may in both 2017 and 2019.  The ijc chose to save montreal over lake ontario residents and that's where the disagreement takes place.  Of the last 36 months they will be focusing on 4.  The other 32 months have been deviated from 2014 and had higher flows than the plan calls for.  In fact record flows for many of those 32 months.  But the 4 months in question, April and may of 2017 and april and may of 2019 lake ontario got fuxked.  They held back water for 2 months to save Montreal and screwed over lake ontario.  The lawsuit will claim that we dealt with high water over flood stage for many months to save them for a brief period of time.  Why couldnt have they dealt with water a foot higher for those 4 months?  If they were a foot higher for those 4 months it means we could have dropped 4 inches per month during that same time frame.  We'd be 16 inches lower and theyd be lower too right now because it would all be gone.  So that's the legit argument.  Would it have been better to flood montreal with another foot of water for 4 total months to be 16 inches lower on lake ontario today.  That's the battle Cuomo will fight to win in the courts.

5 minutes ago, lost a lure said:

 

Now you're back peddling. You stated that the higher flows are not possible at the current levels. Fact is you don't know what your talking about!

Omg.  Sustained higher flow.  They wont last.  Lake st. Lawrence will hit minimum levels soon enough.  I explained it perfectly with the bottleneck effect and lake st Lawrence dropping 10 times now.  I'm sorry if you didnt comprehend it.

During the summer much more water was flowing in.  Think how much more water 2 feet higher and a mile or more wide is.  Once it drops the current is actually faster too since now ur trying to pull the same amount of water through less area.  That's why the neckdowns  have so much more of a bottleneck effect.  Kind of like going under the peacebrige on erie/niagara.  U can feel urself climb as it swells from the bottleneck and then feel urself actually going downhill.  So 10,700 at it's current level has to be insane current.  Probably some of the strongest ever on the St. Lawrence.

The turbine entry is at the bottom of the dam.  Draining lake st Lawrence is like draining a bathtub through the turbines.  U can drain it faster than its filling.

Really cool to watch this play out.  Lake st. Louis is rising below the dam, Lake st. Lawrence is dropping fast.  I wonder which one will make them cut flows first.  10,700 is unheard of.  I really wish I was up there to check it all out.  They really are just dumping every drop they can while they can.  Kudos.

 

"Outflows at the dam have been increased to 10,700 meters per second This is a new record high level of increase"

 

"Still a bit of room at Lake St. Louis, levels dropping at Lake St. Lawrence still but well above minimums. I’m told we’re likely closing in on our max now, but it will reassess tomorrow."

2 minutes ago, GAMBLER said:

They must not be too concerned about the level. They went to 10,700.


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Gonna be cool to see how far it drops.  That's incredible flow.  I can't even imagine the current right now with the lower water.  Gotta be ripping.  Wish I was up there to check it all out.  I'll see if I can msg some friends and get pics of ramps up above if it goes way down.  Be sweet to see.

13 minutes ago, GAMBLER said:

Common sense needs to be used. When more water coming in, more needs to go out. Last year in October/ November the lake started gaining. Normally it drops until mid December. More water should have been let out when possible to make room for the following spring run off. You can say what you want about facts but the IJC blew your facts out of the water when they just took the outflow to 10,300.


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They took the outflow to 10,300 and lake st. Lawrence is dropping inches an hour.  Even at 8600 it dropped 2 feet in a couple days so it's just proving exactly what I explained to you.  Water doesnt make it through the neck down in the river fast enough to maintain the water in Lake st. Lawrence to keep up that amount of ouflow.  It's not sustainable and that's why they dont do it non stop like they can when the lake is higher.  Once incoming water from lake ontario can't sustain water levels on Lake st. Lawrence they slow the flow to achieve balance.  They can only take Lake St. Lawrence down so far before they have to reduce flows again so they dont start effecting water supply's to municipalities, river access, etc.  Litterally 3 days at that flow right now has to drop the area above the dam many feet.  We will find out when the numbers are released next week.  It will be cool to see because I dont think theres ever been flows that high in January.  It's a temporary increase and they should be applauded for taking advantage of this window before ice up.    Read the article.  I've tried 9 different ways to explain this to you and it just isnt clicking.

 

https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/40270/20200102/ijc-rsquo-s-special-winter-management-may-help-lower-lake-ontario-and-the-st-lawrence-river

This is what happens above the dam just trying to delicately balance 8400-9000.  Wait until next weeks numbers come out and watch how fast it drops at 10,400 without the amount of water coming down the river that we had over the summer.  Like I said before it's awesome the ijc is opening it wide open to take advantage of this weather window but they cant do it for months or even days at a time like they can when the river is flowing 30+ inches high.  That's the balancing act the IJC is playing and that's why you saw flows decrease when you did in august, etc.  Once you understand this concept you can litterally do nothing but applaud how well they've kept it at max this year.

 
 
Thank you for playing devil's advocate for so long and educating all of us on all of the different aspects of water control as it relates to the IJC and the 2014 agreement.  The above large print quote however has zero relevance to the current water conditions.  Where exactly is this water shortage going to come from?  The upper lakes have to empty.  The upper lakes take YEARS to cycle all the while we are still getting rain and snow.  You are well informed but as stated by HB2 on last post, you are missing the point.  

Lake st. Lawrence is dropping by the minute and you still argue I'm wrong. Hell it dropped 2 feet in 2 days during that time period and u still act like I'm feeding you bs. It doesnt matter what I say, your mind is made up. Yes lake ontario is high. When its 30 inches high there is enough outflow to sustain 10,400 non stop for months. When it's only 18 inches high like it is now the outflow isnt enough to sustain 10,000 without draining lake st. Lawrence. More water is flowing out than is making it through the necked down portion of the river. Read the article, its explained there. I keep explaining it and for some reason you chose to treat me like a liar instead of researching yourself and realizing I'm not full of **** may actually know wtf I'm talking about here.

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https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/40270/20200102/ijc-rsquo-s-special-winter-management-may-help-lower-lake-ontario-and-the-st-lawrence-river

 

Very good read.

10 minutes ago, horsehunter said:

Most people seem only concerned about the spot they are standing on.  It's a big waterway affecting millions. No matter what's done your going to piss off somebody.

If I only fished here on Ontario where I live maybe I wouldn't have bothered doing the research I've done and forming the opinion i have.  But when you see in person how things are on St. Clair, Erie, Georgian Bay, The Larry above and below the dam and the crazy water lines on the Ottawa from the spring flooding then it's a lot easier to realize no control board is causing this and thier efforts to resolve it have actually been more than they've ever done in the past and the numbers back that up.

21 minutes ago, GAMBLER said:

This thread is done. The IJC proved the true reason for the lake level being high right now. We all know it is because of shipping and the almighty dollar. Like I said before and was told I was wrong, more could have been done to keep this flooding this past year to a minimum. Yes we have had a lot of precip, the lakes are all above average but outflows were scaled back for shipping. We still would have had high water but not to the extreme we had and currently have.

 

 

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They let out more water than ever and it still wasnt enough for anybody not willing to look at the facts.  Outside of april and may the amount of water that was moved was incredible.  They litterally adjusted flows at every opportunity this year.   Scaled back??  To what?  Scaled back to the highest flows of all time?  I'm sorry but anybody who can look at those numbers compared to the last 60 years and still think they are holding back is just in denial.

1 hour ago, Gill-T said:

Ya but I thought they couldn't because of simple physics.........

Take ur shots.  My explanation was spot on.  I said flows drop to what is sustainable because as lake ontario flow decreases down the st. Lawrence and we can drain lake st. Lawrence faster than it can be replenished because of where the river necks down.  In 1 week of somewhat increased flows December 23rd to december 28th lake st. Lawrence dropped 14inches.  Watch what it drops this week now that they've really ramped it up.  It's awesome that they are taking advantage of this window before ice forms.  If the warm weather continues theyll have to decrease flows to allow lake st. Lawrence to "replenish" and then they can ramp it back up again as long as ice formation hasnt began.   It doesnt take long for lake st. Lawrence to drop feet to where the boat ramps wont even be touching the water and municipalities who depend on certain water levels for drinking water become affected.  Keep in mind the iroquois flood gates were closed all summer while flows were 10,400 and lake st. Lawrence still maintained its water levels.  Now watch how fast it drops even with the iroquois gates wide open.  We can litterally drain it faster than it can be supplied at the current lake ontario level.

What?? I had my boat between the international bridge and peace bridge Thursday and Friday jigging walleyes. Both were beautiful days although it got a bit windy friday. I launched at Sheridan both days. As I said before, I fish a ton. I dont winterize my boat and u can always find me out somewhere on the great lakes if I'm not working.

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I did fish browns Saturday on lake ontario in front of my house. Sadly I havent been back up to the Larry since Nov so i didnt complete the trifecta you are accusing me of.

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What?? I had my boat between the international bridge and peace bridge Thursday and Friday jigging walleyes. Both were beautiful days although it got a bit windy friday. I launched at Sheridan both days. As I said before, I fish a ton. I dont winterize my boat and u can always find me out somewhere on the great lakes if I'm not working.

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4 hours ago, jimski2 said:

Yesterday at noon time, Lake Erie water level was flowing over the Black Rock Breakwater. The normal level is about three feet lower so you can assume the flow into Lake Ontario has increased. The winds were not that high to create a seiche event but it may have been an air pressure differential from western Lake Erie near Toledo.

Its been like that consistently for most of the summer.  Constant white water over that wall.  I fished it thursday and Friday and both days water was flowing over the wall.  You should see it on a stiff sw.  Lake Erie is still 30 inches over normal.

33 minutes ago, LongLine said:

 

I'd believe this IF the average daily discharge thru Massena for the last 89 days of 2019 had been 11,006 CuM/sec.  But it wasn't so the above claim is just another example of "Bogus-ology".

 

 

 

 

Come on Spring!  I'd like to go fishing on Lake Ontario at least once in 2020 before the ramps get closed again!

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

Tom why only 89 days in your math?  86 gets 92 days for the last 3 months and 2019 only has 89?     Those graphs destroy any argument you have that things were handled better in 86 than they were in 2019.  Outside of April and May when there was no choice but to reduce flows to prevent a catastrophic event at Montreal, flows were higher every single month.  Summer flows were way higher, fall flows were higher.  Your whole argument is based on 1986 and how they handled things better but take a look at the numbers.  If they only let out what they let out in 1986 in june, july, august and September we'd be worse are than we are today.  You keep praising 86 for letting out water and condemning the job being done today when today they are doing even more.  Your argument makes no sence.  Yes what happened in april and may sucked but they sacrificed a couple inches here to prevent feet of water from causing destruction there.  Keep in mind adjusting flows during that time to what amounted to an inch a week here would have been an additional foot of water per week down below.  As bad as we had and have it here the situation at Montreal this spring was far worse and anybody who would argue that is a moron who must be completely closed off to what's happening in the rest of the world.

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/lake-ontario-outflow-sets-records-2019-further-increases-expected-new-year

 

It's all right here in the press release.    Dont forget to read the part about how they've been over 2014s set peramiters, then compare those to previous management plans to see those were actually lower for this time of year.  Then continue to read about how this year will set the record for most water ever let through the system, then compare and do the math urself because these people cant be trusted.  All propaganda.    Oh and remember when they drop flows in a week or 2 because ice is forming they are really just doing that because of shipping and power production.  Same with any north east blow that slows flow, that's them playing games again.