iiwhistlerii

Typical december flows would be in the 6000's.  Maybe the low 7s.  Today we are still flowing at over 8600.  Yes we are down from the 10,400 raging flows of summer but 8600 is still incredibly high especially for December.  This is the part people are failing to realize or refusing to acknowledge.

The water flowing into LO from the upper lakes is at a higher rate than normal because of high levels in those lakes ( your words ). The outflow must be maintained high to allow for the increased volume from upstream. Or we will have more flooding in the spring


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2 hours ago, GAMBLER said:

Why cut back outflows starting on August 21st if Montreal wasn't flooding, the Ottawa wasn't flooding and ice was not forming.  It is simple, shipping.  Safer travel for ships yet the lake continues to be way too high.  They dealt with higher flows all summer why not keep it at high outflows until flooding occurs or ice is close to forming.  Yes there was high precipitation, higher upper great lakes, but better management could have us going into winter with a lower Lake Ontario and a better chance of less flooding next year. 

It doesnt work that way.  By august 21st the lake was down 2 feet from where it high point.

3 hours ago, Gill-T said:

Right, high flows blowing out thru the gates due to high water conditions ABOVE and BELOW the dam. The high conditions above the dam due to changes in regulations- this is what is broken. The timing of the water release.  The Moses Saunders Dam could have held back water and potentially lessened flooding in Montreal and create an opportunity for Ottawa water control measures to release more water into the St Lawrence and lessen their flooding. The draw down on Ontario that didn’t happen per usual created zero wiggle room for water level managers to reduce the effect of the 100 year flooding occurring in 2017 and ‘19.  I don’t understand the thinking of the IJC agreement. If we are to believe in global warming is raising sea levels, there will be growing resistance to water leaving the St Lawrence estuary. Montreal flooding will continue to be a problem. The draw down of Lake Ontario in the fall needs to be increased to aid flooding mitigation in the spring not decreased. 

Please find me where this winter draw down that always happens didnt happen in 17, 18 or 19.  Please please please use data to find me when they held in more water than any of the prior 10+ years under 2014.  Oh yea, u wont, because they let out more, even during winter months.  You guys act like it's all a man made act that controls this flow.  When the lake is 40 inches high it's easy to reach numbers like 10,400.  When it's only 10 inches over avg like it is now you arent going to get those numbers no matter what you do.  The water isnt there to flow at that rate.  That's why it decreases as summer goes on and into fall.  As the lake drops flow drops.  Its nature and physics at work.  When they do raise flows to an unnatural level lake st. Lawrence drops above the dam because flow isnt fast enough from lake ontario to keep it full.  That's why flows are adjusted as they are and even adjusted daily to account for wind, ice, etc.  Feel free to look at the data from the last 20 years of outflows and it helps to understand to the hows and whys.  It isnt a faucet attached to a dam face holding back lake ontario, it's is a series flood control reservoirs along a dredged river that has constantly fluctuating flow levels.  

28 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

Here is what some other Canadians think. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/protesters-blame-new-great-lakes-plan-for-floods-on-lake-ontario-ottawa-river/amp

 

Jimski, please don’t comment. 

Did you read the article?  I did back in November when it came out.  They are complaining about the high flows coming through the lower st. Lawrence and blaming them for having to hold back the Ottawa at the dams as to not wipe out Montreal.  So they are complaining about the high flows below the dams while we complain every single time that flow is slowed.  When they talk about keeping the st. Lawrence high for shipping they are talking about BELOW THE DAM for port of Montreal.  That involves letting out more water.  Everyone wants to blame 2014 but one side blames for 1 reason and the other for a different reason and they only thing anyone can agree on is that lake ontario is too damn high and it's all the IJCs fault.  

Amazing how fast people forget...  It was just a few years ago marinas were so low many docks were unusable.  We were all complaining about how they were giving all the water away to the middle east and the lakes were drying up.  Boats bottoming out as they entered harbors, constant complaints that everything needed to be re-dredged.    Now here we are 8 years later with every great lake as high as we've ever seen.  Stop buying into the world is ending scenarios the media is constantly selling. This too shall pass, we will have a few acceptable years with "normal" conditions before the next dry spell where we can all discuss how the lakes are drying up and the ijc let out too much water because plan 2014 allows them to let out more than previous plans and now the permanent boat slip and docks I built with poor designs in 2019 are all useless.  Just hope for a dry year.

My bad, I didn’t realize it will back to normal in 2 years like it always has been......


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Ultimately when the lake properties decrease in value, are sold at well below the current assessments, the towns that relied on that income for stability will redesign their withholdings to make up for the loss. Guess where that will come from......


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Didn’t the Ottawa River flood because there was resistance from high water and ice on the St Lawrence?

Correct HB2. All reservoirs are drawn down in late fall in preparation for coming spring/winter melt. Preemptive. Smart. Easier to adjust shipping timing than move houses to higher ground.

8 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

Wouldn’t that have caused Ottawa to be flooded for three years?

What?  The st Lawrence doesnt flow into the Ottawa....  The Ottawa flows into the st Lawrence at Montreal.  If we let the seaway flow at 10,400 during the spring (2019 summer flows)while the Ottawa was at record levels raging 9 ft above normal in spots it would have wiped areas of Montreal off of the map.  Yes flows in the st. Lawrence below the dam have been elevated and sometimes extreme in the last 3 years.

2 minutes ago, HB2 said:

Maybe the reason they did not increase flows in previous years is because they did not have to . 

Exactly.  Those are normal flows.  The flows the last 3 years have been far far above normal 95% of the time.  Hard to blame our water levels on holding back water when flows have been higher than ever the entire time.  

7 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

Ok....then why is NYS suing ??

Because water was held back during high water periods on the Ottawa.  We sacrificed a couple inches here so Montreal wouldnt be wiped off the map.  Look at the data and u can see exactly when this occurred.  At one point flows dropped into the 5000s for the day.  It had nothing to do with plan 2014 tho, it was temporary reductions in flow that were exactly when the Ottawa was at its worst.  Everything was precisely calculated and strategically implemented to have the least overall impact on everyone.   It's the lesser of 2 evils.  It had everything to do with the record amounts of precipitation we've had to deal with in our entire watershed. 

NYS is taking a stab at trying to recoup some of the funds they are dishing out hand over fist.  I'm sure if the other great lakes had somebody to try and sue theyd do the same.  Fact of the matter is they are dealing with higher water than even we are and dont have a scapegoat with deep pockets.  The numbers dont lie, do the research for yourself.

1 minute ago, Sk8man said:

Um....if this an eye exam....I'm screwed

Lol.  Yea holy hell did those get degraded with upload.  Here is the link so u can see how much water passes through the seaway on a normal year.  I believe data from 2011-18 can be found at the bottom. 

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/outflow-changes

More water has passed through the system in the last 36 months than any 36 months on record but somehow people are still blaming it on holding back water.  It's a weird argument to have when faced with the facts.

This is the stuff I love.  Flows consistently higher month after month than they were in 2014, 15, 17 and all the years before that actually but this is all because they are "closing the gates".  Lmfao. Look at these numbers from pre 2017 years.  Hell go back and look at flows from the last time we had high water 20 years ago.  The outflows since 2017 have been higher than ever.  

Outflows have increased this last week:
 

 
Tom B.
(LongLine)

The water level of lake Ontario has zero bearing on the rest of the great lakes.  We can stop debating this now.  Its fact.

4 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

Water is coming down Welland Canal.  

A lock system.  Again separated by waterfalls between walls and drops that equal 167' and in zero way effected by the height of lake Ontario.

It absolutely will. There is less back pressure on the water and it will flow faster if you pull the plug. This is simple hydraulics. Pull the plug down stream and they will all drop.


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50 minutes ago, LongLine said:

Nice fish. Yes, ice forms near shore first.  Hope you told your friend to get off the ice...as just a couple days are all that's needed: (19th & 20th)

 

 

Here's a USGS chart so you can see the years' history & you can extrapolate the above:

Highest ever let out was 378K, (approx. 35-40 yrs ago)  Max this year was 364K.

 

BTW, the Ottawa was back to normal in June.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

Yup, ottawa was back to normal in June as rivers tend to do after spring flooding.  Just as the outflows were increased to safe maximums as it receded as ur chart shows.  In fact that was the only time in your chart that flows were actually "reduced".  Since we are going to start bringing numbers into the conversation, trust me I've read them all in this case, let's bring the correct numbers into the conversation.  We actually spent most of the summer at 367,270k.  Although your single day record number of 378k is correct (1993) it only actually happened for very brief periods on 3 separate days during that year.  (Extreme west winds combined with high water)  Previous recorded sustained flows were 364k which were in place most of the summer in 2017.  This summer they actually increased flows another 200 cubic meters from 10,200 (364k) to 10,400 (367k).  Now keep in mind this number is calculated by including all water that passes through the Moses Sauders power dam, water that passes over the spillway at the Long Sault dam, the massena diversion and the diversion at the raisin river.  Those flows arent possible in the winter, they wont let water come over the spillways and bust up the ice below the long sault. Flows have been up over norms and even historical highs since the Ottawa receded in june.  Current levels are safe maximums and are right in line if not higher with what has always been practiced.

Last but not least since you knowledge even extends to the guy in the photos ice conditions.  4 inches of solid ice where hes at in the photo and ice is shore to shore right there.

Just a quick post for those that doubted my claims last week that ice was just days away below the dam on the St. Lawrence.  This photo is from yesterday, if you look closely that's the moses Saunders dam in the background to the far right.

 
How in the world did you ever translate what I said into what you think I said?
 
You should be embarrassed of yourself for putting your own words into my own words. You must think awful highly of yourself, which is a shame.
 
If you think that every gallon of water from Lake Superior makes the long journey to Lake Ontario, you are drinking some good koolaid.
 
The IJC controls the outflow of Lake Ontario, and has failed to properly control the outflow of LAKE ONTARIO on countless occasions since 2017.
 
You are among the minority here, who believes in a miserably failed plan 2014. You also need an English translator because you keep twisting other's words into your own translation.
 
You wouldn't use your arrogant attitude with me in person, so DON'T use it on a forum like some armchair tough guy!!! Check yourself and your attitude, our check out of here!
 
 

6 minutes ago, HB2 said:

They screwed up when they passed 2014 . They took a gamble that the lake would not go as high as it did. And it started to rain like cats and dogs the minute they closed the gates all over the great lakes watershed ,  and it turned around and bit them on the ass . THATS CALLED KARMA . 

 

The simple question is , as soon as it was safe downstream ,and the minute the Ottawa river receded  , are they releasing the absolute max out ? 

 

FULL well knowing that we are 18" above normal , and above us is at record highs , if they are and have been at max release , thanks for trying . If not then they are playing us like fools .  

 

 

I keep reading this "closed the gates".  No changes in outflows were made when 2014 took effect in jan 2017.  In fact he exact same outflows would have been used under the previous management plan.  No "gates" were ever closed.  Hell no changes were even made.  Just the name on the door.  1 normal spring and the end of this cyclic event and all will be fine.  Like I said before I just hope everyone was smart enough to build the new docks as floaters so ur not jumping down into the boat during the next dry spring and low water cycle.

Over and over I get the impression that more than 1 person here believes the IJC is somehow "backing up" the whole system.   If this is what you actually believe it's time for you to seriously take the time to read about how water passes through the great lakes system.  This is like having to explain to a college kid how babies are made.  It's not a stork dropping the little bundle of joy on your porch I can tell u that.

17 minutes ago, Todd in NY said:

Yep, it rained, and the IJC had absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

Give us all a break and sell it to members on another forum. We're not buying it here.

You actually believe that slowing the flow in the st Lawrence and lake Ontarios water level has any impact on the water levels on the other great lakes?  What do u think they are slowing down Niagara falls?  Is this actually what u believe?  Please take the time to research how the system works before replying again.  That's embarrassing.  

18 minutes ago, Todd in NY said:

It just dawned on me...

 

The reason that all of the Great Lakes are higher this year is because global warming is melting the glaciers 

Or because it rained.  Feel free to explain why Erie, Huron, Michigan Superior and St. Clair are higher for any other reason.