Jump to content

Recommended Posts

It looks like the IJC releases updated water data on Friday's.

 

Since the St.Lawrence outflow was cut to 260,600 on March 20th, LO water level is going up on average .03 inches per day (.083 = 1 inch), with a couple rain events added, in 2 weeks LO has added almost 5 inches, but still over 1/2 a foot lower than average for this week.

 

So from the low on March 20, I guesstimate LO will add at least 1 foot by April 19th and 2 feet by May 20th which will put LO in-line with seasonal average water levels. Which still seems low to me, but the previous 3 years were 2-3 feet above average water levels so I think my perspective is off.

 

* Guesstimate assumes St. Lawrence outflow, Lake Erie inflow and tributary/rain do not change. Actual numbers will account for any changes.

 

I'll aim to update this weekly on Saturday updated numbers (grey shaded is guesstimate)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HJfG1WgxjrmZQ7HSjEdZxiaEUThlU02Spb9JzMFSM3c/edit#gid=0

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Only problem with your guesstimate is that on 4/3 they increased the outflow to 281,800 cubic feet/min.

This is the maximum flow rate allowed:

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/outflow-changes

The 2021 Seaway navigation season is open as of 22 March. For the coming week, the average Lake Ontario outflow is expected to be 7980 m³/s, which is the Plan 2014 maximum “L-Limit” that applies at the current level of Lake Ontario (74.56 m).  Plan 2014’s “L-Limit” flow is the maximum flow that can be released while maintaining adequate levels and safe velocities for navigation in the International (Upper) Section of the St. Lawrence River. 

 

I always try to give them the benefit of the doubt but I am having a hard time understanding why they would increase the flow with the current lake levels being so low and no major precipitation in the forecast?????

Edited by mudflat
added link
Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, mudflat said:

Only problem with your guesstimate is that on 4/3 they increased the outflow to 281,800 cubic feet/min.

 

The surest way to be proven wrong on the internet is to claim you are right, LOL. Of course Erie Inflows, trib/rain, and St.Lawrence will change that guess. So each week I'll plug in the actual numbers from the previous week and re-guesstimate.

 

These are the sites I use, gives data of the past week (updating on Thurs or Fri). Thanks for posting yours.

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/water-levels

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/flows

 

I wish they'd release explanations for each outflow increase/decrease - I want to believe they are smart engineers/scientists, but increasing the St. Law outflow now seems really stupid.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

IJC lowered the outflow yesterday

Let's hope that with this decrease and some rain the lake levels start coming up again

 

 

Lake Ontario Outflow Changes

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn

DATE HOUR/ FROM/DE    TO/À   
(YYYY-MM-DD) HEURE (m3/s) (ft3/s) (m3/s) (ft3/s)
2021-04-10 0001 7,980 281,800 7,420 262,000
2021-04-03 0001 7,380 260,600 7,980 281,800
2021-03-20 0001 8,000 282,500 7,380 260,600
2021-03-13 0001 8,080 285,300 8,000 282,500
2021-03-06 0001 8,140 287,500 8,080 285,300
2021-03-01 0001 8,600 303,700 8,140 287,500
2021-02-21 1501 8,400 296,600 8,600 303,700
2021-02-20 1201 8,000 282,500 8,400 296,600
2021-02-19 1201 7,600 268,400 8,000 282,500
2021-02-18 1801 7,400 261,300 7,600 268,400
2021-02-18 0701 7,000 247,200 7,400 261,300
2021-02-17 1101 6,600 233,100 7,000 247,200
2021-02-16 1401 7,000 247,200 6,600 233,100
2021-02-12 1401 7,400 261,300 7,000 247,200
2021-02-11 1601 8,300 293,100 7,400 261,300
2021-02-10 1901 8,500 300,200 8,300 293,100
2021-02-09 2001 8,800 310,800 8,500 300,200
2021-02-05 1801 8,200 289,600 8,800 310,800
2021-02-04 1201 7,700 271,900 8,200 289,600
2021-02-03 1401 7,100 250,700 7,700 271,900
2021-02-01 1501 6,900 243,700 7,100 250,700
2021-01-31 1801 7,200 254,300 6,900 243,700
2021-01-28 1601 7,700 271,900 7,200 254,300
2021-01-26 1001 7,200 254,300 7,700 271,900
2021-01-24 1701 8,400 296,600 7,200 254,300
2021-01-23 1701 9,200 324,900 8,400 296,600
2021-01-19 1501 9,400 332,000 9,200 324,900
2021-01-16 1701 9,200 324,900 9,400 332,000
2021-01-14 1201 9,500 335,500 9,200 324,900
2021-01-12 1201 9,400 332,000 9,500 335,500
2021-01-09 1501 9,300 328,400 9,400 332,000
2021-01-07 1301 9,200 324,900 9,300 328,400
2021-01-05 1001 9,400 332,000 9,200 324,900
2021-01-04 1701 9,500 335,500 9,400 332,000
2021-01-03 1301 9,400 332,000 9,500 335,500
2021-01-01 0801 8,090 285,700 9,400 332,000
2020-12-26 0001 8,110 286,400 8,090 285,700
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for posting @mudflat

 

Updated the spreadsheet just to say I did - a little pointless since there was virtually no increase in water level. Howling at the moon - but I'd love to see an explanation of changes. And, the average outflow for this time of year is 240k - why are we 260K or higher? We should be average or below.

 

If the pattern holds from previous, the reduction in flow on 4/10 should add about 2.5 inches in a week. They post new numbers on Thurs or Friday so we'll see. Hopefully the rain this week is heavy enough to add some too. Today's rain in Syracuse was only  a soaking rain, no real run-off.

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...