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GAMBLER

Lake temp data updated - 1997 - present

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I have been compiling some data on Lake temps in the winter from the deep water lake temp.  As we all know, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters was horrible for the alewife and the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2107 winters were great.  After seeing the this winters data, my guess would be a mediocre survival rate compared to the two bad and two good winters.  Only time will tell.  Here is the data:

 

1997-1998 winter average temps

Dec. - 40.0*

Jan. - 37.7*

Feb. - 37.6*

Mar. - 38.4*

Apr. - 43.5*

5 month average - 39.4*

this winter had 104 days below 40*.  of those 104, 53 were below 38* and 0 below 35*

 

1998-1999 winter average temps

Dec. - 43.9*

Jan. - 36.5*

Feb. - 36.8*

Mar. - 36.7*

Apr. - 42.1*

5 month average - 39.2*

this winter had 96 days below 40*.  Of those 96 days, 85 were below 38* and 5 were below 35*

 

1999-2000 winter average temps

Dec. - 42.4*

Jan. - 36.8*

Feb. - 35.4*

Mar. - 38.5*

Apr. - 41.7*

5 Month average - 39.0*

This winter had 93 days below 40*.  Of those 93 days, 79 were below 38* and 21 were below 35*

 

2000-2001 winter average temps

Dec. - 40.2*

Jan. - 35.0*

Feb. - 35.3*

Mar. - 36.7*

Apr. - 41.0*

5 month average - 37.7*

This winter had 114 days below 40*.  Of those 114 days, 102 were below 38* and 26 were below 35*

 

2001-2002 winter average

Dec. - 44.8*

Jan. - 37.5*

Feb. - 37.1*

Mar. - 37.7*

Apr - 42.0

5 month average - 39.9*

This winter had 103 days below 40*.  Of those 103 days, 74 were below 38* and 0 below 35*

 

2002-2003 winter average temps

Dec. - 40.2*

Jan. - 36.0*

Feb. - 34.8*

Mar. - 35.7*

Apr. - 38.7*

5 month average - 37.1*

This winter had 125 days below 40*.  Of those 125 days, 95 were below 38* and 52 below 35*

 

2003 - 2004 winter average temps

Dec. - 40.2*

Jan. - 35.8*

Feb. - 34.8*

Mar. - 36.8*

Apr. - 40.9*

5 month average - 37.7*

This winter had 120 days below 40*.  Of those 120 days, 90 were below 38* and 30 below 35*

 

2004-2005 winter average temps

Dec. - 41.9*

Jan. - 36.3*

Feb. - 34.5*

Mar. - 35.2*

Apr. - 42.1*

5 Month average - 38.0*

This winter had 107 days below 40*.  Of those 107 days, 95 were below 38* and 50 were below 35*

 

2005 - 2006 winter average temps

Dec. - 39.0*

Jan. - 37.8*

Feb. - 36.1*

Mar. - 36.8*

Apr. - 42.3

5 month average - 38.4*

This winter had 113 days below 40*.  Of those 113 days, 80 were below 38* and 18 below 35*

 

2006 -2007 winter average temps

Dec. - 43.4*

Jan. - 39.6*

Feb. - 34.1*

Mar. - 36.5*

Apr. - 39.8*

5 month average - 38.8*

This winter had 78 days below 40*.  Of those 78 days, 74 were below 38* and 28 were below 35*

 

2007-2008 winter average temps

Dec. - 39.4*

Jan. - 37.0*

Feb. - 35.2*

Mar. - 35.8*

Apr. - 41.4*

5 month average - 37.8*

This winter had 116 days below 40*.  Of those 116 days, 94 were below 38* and 32 below 35*

 

2008-2009 winter average temps

Dec. - 39.5*

Jan. - 34.9*

Feb. - 34.9*

Mar. - 36.8*

Apr. - 40.9*

5 month average - 37.4*

This winter had 123 days below 40*.  Of those 123 days, 96 were below 38*, and 38 below 35*

 

2009-2010 winter average temps

Dec. - 43.3*

Jan. - 35.8*

Feb. - 34.6*

Mar. - 38.7*

Apr. - 44.7*

5 month average - 39.5*

This winter had 107 days below 40*.  Of those 107 days, 68 were below 38* and 37 below 35*

 

2010-2011 winter average temps

Dec. - 39.9*

Jan. - 35.4*

Feb. - 34.6*

Mar. - 37.5*

Apr. - 41.1*

5 month average - 37.7*

This winter had 117 days below 40*. Of those 117 days, 97 were below 38* and 34 below 35*

 

2011-2012 winter average temps

Dec. - 44.5*

Jan. - 38.9*

Feb. - 37.1*

Mar. - 40.3*

Apr. - 45.6*

5 month average - 41.3* This winter had 71 days below 40*.  Of those 71 days, 38 were below 38* and 0 below 35*

 

2012-2013 winter average temps

Dec. - 44.0*

Jan. - 38.0*

Feb. - 36.3*

Mar. - 37.1*

Apr. - 40.1

5 month average temp - 39.3*

This winter had 104 days below 40*.  Of those 104 days, 75 were below 38* and 3 below 35*

 

2013-2014 winter Average temps

Dec. - 38.6*

Jan. - 34.3*

Feb. - 33.9*

Mar. 34.4*

Apr. - 38.5*

5 month average - 36.0*

This winter had 132 days below 40*.  Of the 132 days, 119 were below 38* and 79 below 35*. 

 

2014-2015 winter average temps

Dec. - 40.4*

Jan. - 35.5*

Feb. - 33.9*

Mar. - 34.7*

Apr. - 39.5*

5 month average - 36.8*

This winter had 123 days below 40*.  Of the 123 days, 97 were below 38* and 70 below 35*.

 

2015-2016 winter average temps

Dec. - 46.2*

Jan. - 38.4*

Feb. - 37.1*

Mar. - 39.0*

Apr. - 42.1*

5 month average - 40.6

This winter had 80 days below 40*.  Of the 80, 47 were below 38* and 3 below 35*.

 

2016-2017 winter average temps

Dec. - 42.5*

Jan. - 37.6*

Feb. - 36.9*

Mar. - 38.0*

Apr. - 42.8*

5 month average - 39.6**

This winter had 105 days below 40*.  Of the 105, 65 were below 38* and 0 below 35*.

 

2017 - 2018 (still compiling)

Dec. - 40.6*

Jan. - 35.2*

Feb. - 35.4*

Mar. - 36.7* (data up to 3/23/18)

So far, we have had 98 days below 40*.  Of those 98, 84 were below 38* and 23 below 35*.  As of right now, the daily deep water temps are anywhere from 37 - 39 degrees.  From here on out, they usually do not fall below 37 degrees. 

 

I am compiling more data for year prior to try compare YOY survival to the number of days the lake gets below 40, 37 and 35 degrees.  I will post more when I get it. 

Edited by GAMBLER
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Probably as good a forecast as we could hope for. We'd like the Kings to grow to size but be hungry enough to hit. If I had to choose i'd opt for lots of smaller ones than a few big ones. 

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2 minutes ago, ogrob56 said:

Probably as good a forecast as we could hope for. We'd like the Kings to grow to size but be hungry enough to hit. If I had to choose i'd opt for lots of smaller ones than a few big ones. 

We needed another winter like last winter.  If the alewife YOY survival rate is low, we could be in for another round of stocking cuts..... 

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That's cool data as I have not been in this addiction we call trolling long. Seems like you hit it on the head. directly in the middle of the bad winter and great winter averages so far.

 

Thanks for sharing

 

Edit...YOY= young of year?

 

So if that's what it means if the alwives don't survive they cut back the stocking bc of the lack of food availability?

 

Sent from my SM-N920V using Lake Ontario United mobile app

 

 

 

 

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I have data coming all the way back to 1997.  I will get it done and up.  I have the alewife data so I will compare them. 

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Then a mathematician can create a stocking formula. Good as anything. 

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31 minutes ago, stoneam2006 said:

That's cool data as I have not been in this addiction we call trolling long. Seems like you hit it on the head. directly in the middle of the bad winter and great winter averages so far.

 

Thanks for sharing

 

Edit...YOY= young of year?

 

So if that's what it means if the alwives don't survive they cut back the stocking bc of the lack of food availability?

 

Sent from my SM-N920V using Lake Ontario United mobile app

 

 

 

 

YOY is young of the year.  Watch Shanes video on the State of the lake meeting below and it explains it all. 

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19 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

Then a mathematician can create a stocking formula. Good as anything. 

sounds like a job that would be as reliable as a weatherman!

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I would think over that twenty year period lake fertility level would be a a factor also.  Phosphorus levels have declined pretty good during this time.  Maybe bad winters, while still harmful we’re buffered by larger fertility levels buffering the starvation portion of the equation.

 

 

Either way seeing your numbers should be really interesting.  Thanks for the work Brian.

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29 minutes ago, pvelyk said:

I would think over that twenty year period lake fertility level would be a a factor also.  Phosphorus levels have declined pretty good during this time.  Maybe bad winters, while still harmful we’re buffered by larger fertility levels buffering the starvation portion of the equation.

 

 

Either way seeing your numbers should be really interesting.  Thanks for the work Brian.

The video Shane posted talked about the winter and the April - June period.  I have not looked at the temps during that time period yet.  The video showed a segment on that and the data was not consistent.  I would think the food in the lake was high after last spring / summers nutrient loading.  We will see!

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Surface water temperatures are varied by wind flow direction, strength along with sun periods. Stream flows can raise or lower surface water temperatures. Algae blooms are greatest on the surface from 55 to 65 degrees F. That is your prime water depth to fish at.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United

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7 hours ago, jimski2 said:

Surface water temperatures are varied by wind flow direction, strength along with sun periods. Stream flows can raise or lower surface water temperatures. Algae blooms are greatest on the surface from 55 to 65 degrees F. That is your prime water depth to fish at.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United

The temps I used are deep water temp NOT surface temp.  These temp readings are taken at our intake crib on the BOTTOM of Lake Ontario.

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4 hours ago, GAMBLER said:

The temps I used are deep water temp NOT surface temp.  These temp readings are taken at our intake crib on the BOTTOM of Lake Ontario.

What bugs me with these numbers is that with a southern wind upwelling the warmer deep water will come up (the opposite of summer temperature wise). Unless you can somehow get graphs of wind  speed and direction and cross reference them with your temperature graph, this only gives a very localized picture. Only at the depth of the intake crib. When the lake freezes over the water will stratify but with a mostly open lake and stormy weather like last winter the temperatures are probably all over the place.

Edited by rolmops

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3 minutes ago, rolmops said:

What bugs me with these numbers is that with a southern wind upwelling the warmer deep water will come up (the opposite of summer temperature wise). Unless you can somehow get graphs of wind  speed and direction and cross reference them with your temperature graph this only gives a very localized picture.

Not necessarily true.  Once the water temp drops, you do not have a big difference in water density and the temp shifts do not occur like you would think.  In the summer we see huge temp shifts with big winds.  In the winter, we see very slow shifts in temp and they normally come after a couple days of light winds. 

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1 hour ago, GAMBLER said:

The temps I used are deep water temp NOT surface temp.  These temp readings are taken at our intake crib on the BOTTOM of Lake Ontario.

At the Rochester SOL, Brian Weidel, the USGS Biologist that made the presentations and does the trawling now, indicated that the data he was "mining" was the daily intake temperatures for the Shoremont Water Treatment Plant.  And he said that last year's data fell in the middle and could go either way in terms of how the hatch last year did coming through the winter, so the big story for this spring will be how well they show up in the April trawls. 

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12 minutes ago, Lucky13 said:

At the Rochester SOL, Brian Weidel, the USGS Biologist that made the presentations and does the trawling now, indicated that the data he was "mining" was the daily intake temperatures for the Shoremont Water Treatment Plant.  And he said that last year's data fell in the middle and could go either way in terms of how the hatch last year did coming through the winter, so the big story for this spring will be how well they show up in the April trawls. 

That is the data I am looking at.  I work at the plant running the distribution system.  I sit at a desk and stare at the lake temp for 40+ hours a week.

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