Another outdoor decision by Washington

[fisherdude]

Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 50,000 points for first time | Fox Business
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-closes-above-50000-first-time

Trump tariffs seem to be working here I do think it's a tax hike on the American Consumer. But it's starting to make the economy boom now if they can bring down the interest rate so new homeowners can get into a home that'd be an improvement

[Gator]

I love a great discussion, particularly involving statistics (there's lies, damn lies, and statistics lol).

 

But this train got derailed somewhere. Imma finish me morning coffee and deposit a loaf of my own....the price of which has been the same for 58 years. 

 

And then maybe I'll think about outdoor decisions. Meliora, my brothers.

[fisherdude]

NYSERDA includes Yates County project in $7M for solar/ag collaboration | News | fltimes.com
https://www.fltimes.com/news/nyserda-includes-yates-county-project-in-7m-for-solar-ag-collaboration/article_0fbc45f4-3ab7-4a13-bb1b-c38b0a662805.html

[HB2]

Science told us all about COVID 

 

I heard that  Southern Florida is now under 2 ft of water and  that the polar ice caps are completely melted  as we were told 15 years ago now  because of Global warming now climate change . Kind of ironic today . 

[GAMBLER]

17 hours ago, LongLine said:

So I found that complete "un-scrunched" graph on FRED's website.  The notes say it's taken from "75 selected cites." (US) It shows the high was $2 per pound.   Also shows a drop from $2.00 to $1.80/lb beginning 2024 through 2025. The complete (not rescaled) graph shows the price of bread pretty constant from 2009 through 2020. A big jump occurs starting in 2020 which coincides with people eating more at home due to the pandemic. (I.E. demand up means prices up)

 

If you look up US minimum wage history: The Federal minimum wage was increased in 2009 to $7.25 and there are 21 states that still use that as their minimum.  (Including Texas, Georgia, etc.)

 

FRED's site also has minimum wage histories for all the states.  Adding up the numbers calculates an average US minimum wage for 2024 to be $11.40/hr.  In 2025 it's $11.69/hr and in 2026 it's $12.00/hr.   So US minimum wage increased and price of bread went down so obviously min wage is not the driver.  It'd go down a lot more if it wasn't for tariffs.

 

Some say that die-hard trumpers are sheep and that the Bible tells where the sheep ended up, but I won't.

Hopefully you never run a business Tom.  Minimum wage increases drives price but not directly.  If a business owner has to pay more to employee people to work, the increase goes to the consumer (minimum wage increases always make expense go up, never down). If you ran a business without increasing prices when expenses rise, you wouldn’t be in business long.    You still will not answer my question about why you blame tariffs yet the prices are lower than pre tariffs.  My stance isn’t political it’s common sense.  Your comment about tariffs is complete garbage.  The graphs don’t lie.  The increase came from the three to four years BEFORE tariffs.  

Edited February 7 by GAMBLER

[Gill-T]

I would like to see a graph charting amount of open water/boat ramps on the y axis vs the amount of discussion about the cost of a loaf of bread on the x axis. Pretty sure there is an inverse relationship. 

[LongLine]

Gill-T: Depends on how many sandwiches you eat (or burgers) and the time of year launches are open. 

 

Brian:  Here's the real graph from your "Fred site." https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000702111

 

 

2010 to 2020 hovers around $1.40/Lb.  In 2020 it drastically begins increase and then begins going down near '24.  It went up to $2.00 or 43%.  Minimum wage did not increase 43% in that period especially in states like Texas, where the min wage has been (and still is plus 20 other states) at $7.25/hr.

 

2020 began the national "remote learning" in schools and "working from home" movements. These people ate at home rather than get lunch at school or in the cafeteria and bought more bread for sandwiches.  (Demand went up.). That was what caused the drastic jump in bread price. Those years also began the push to get away from people and go outside for fresh air. We both know sales of fishing gear was pretty good '21-23. (I couldn't keep sinkers on the shelf.) 

 

The pandemic is over and Fred's graph says the price is going down. Well yeah, demand is going back down as not as many sandwiches are being made at home.  Even though the minimum wage was increased again, twice! Reduced demand caused that the major bread bakery in Olean NY to close.

 

As far as pay for cooking burgers go, look at the publicity about school loans and the push to get kids into the trades rather than college in the last 5 years.  Why would a kid want to earn minimum wage when he could become a tradesman apprentice for 3 times the pay?  Kids would totally avoid going into horrendous debt.  Look at the age of the burger people and clerks at retail/convenience stores.  Obviously younger worker supply is down, and demand is high for any worker hence higher wages are offered.

 

As to the stock market:  They are "profit takers", not "product makers."  Just wait for annual reports to see the profits of some of these companies.  If the economy is "booming" because the Stk Mkt is high, then why complain about the price of a burger?   WH says the economy is "booming" so are these complainers balking at the price of a burger or balking at the wages they have to pay employees?  Or are they subconsciously admitting that the WH is lying?  

 

As a side note:  I just used a leaf blower to clean off truck and driveway this morning.  One battery in my 40v blower saved a lot of work
 

[HB2]

How fast people forget 

 

During COVID , many were paid to stay home , and in a lot of cases made  more money  than they were making working . Remember the 600$ checks and all the money thrown as it ? This was the start of lazy ass syndrome . People got use to sitting home collecting instead of working .Non essentials were told to stay home  This led to supply shortages from lack of labor . This , price increases 

 

During COVID The price of everything went through the roof . Many things you couldn't even get . In my business I spent 58$ for 6 2x4x8  once . Usually 26$ 

For custom built-in cabinets , the drawer slides I use were 1 year. out , couldn't even get them . We needed white oak  for cabinets and beams and it was unavailable . 

I work in the trades . I see very few younger people coming into them . And when I see them , very few last . So I don't know what you are talking about . 

 

Remember in Mich , I think,  where you were not even allowed to go outside your house without being arrested and fined . Not the fresh air initiative of which you imply . 

 

There is a big difference in battery powered tools and electric heat and cars . California wants all Battery cars by I think 2030. They have rolling blackouts now during summer . What's going to happen when people get home on a hot day at 5 pm  when AC is blasting and everyone plugs their car into a 100 amp circuit ? 

[LongLine]

Well, back to environmental decisions made by Washington:

DJT is opening the only area on the Atlantic seaboard protected from commercial fishing for commercial fishing. The NE Canyons & Seamount Marine National Monument.  Guessing nobody ever explained the difference between Trollers and Trawlers to him.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-makes-major-change-to-fishing-11482477

 

He previously opened a protected area out west.  I.E. Pacific Islands Marine National Monument.  

 

 

 

[woody 184]

Mr. Gator why don’t you back up your comments on Lies, where’s your Facts. he’s probably a Life long Screaming Libber.  
explain your lies

[LongLine]

Here's another environmental decision:  Dicamba has been approved in herbicides.

 

https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/epa-reapproves-dangerous-drift-prone-pesticide-dicamba-2026-02-06/

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/climate/epa-dicamba-drifting-herbicide-approval.html
 

Can't help wondering how much of it will end up in US waters.

[rolmops]

33 minutes ago, woody 184 said:

Mr. Gator why don’t you back up your comments on Lies, where’s your Facts. he’s probably a Life long Screaming Libber.  
explain your lies

I think that you should be aware that Mr Gator as you call him is by his own admission a lifelong libertarian type republican. Do not challenge him because he will bury you in facts that are backed up by proof and not opinion. On the other hand , he does not usually bother reacting to name callers.

Edited February 8 by rolmops

[dp]

[rolmops]

This is the perfect thread for cabin fever.

[rolmops]

By the way, the price of bread went down because of the tariffs. How is that possible? The tariffs were imposed and in reaction to that, a very, very big customer of agricultural products decided to take his business elsewhere and the grain that would normally have been exported is now flooding the local markets. So now supply is bigger than demand.

Edited February 8 by rolmops

[fisherdude]

12 hours ago, rolmops said:

By the way, the price of bread went down because of the tariffs. How is that possible? The tariffs were imposed and in reaction to that, a very, very big customer of agricultural products decided to take his business elsewhere and the grain that would normally have been exported is now flooding the local markets. So now supply is bigger than demand.

So the price of a Big Mac at McDonald's is going to go down due to the bun costing less?

[Gator]

I prefer a quarter pounder with cheese. I gain five pounds during early bow season based on my strict adherence to a "Mickie D's diet".

 

As an anecdotal aside, we were fishing Nantucket Shoals two years ago when that big wind turbine broke off into the ocean, floating around as a 200 foot hazard just under the surface and making Nantucket beaches unusable for weeks (fiberglass shards washing up). It was quite a thing. You could hear it go...we all went, "WTF was that!?!" I am not a big fan of wind or solar. 

 

I'm also not a fan of the commercial harvesters. The board that sets limits for marine harvest is a political entity that only marginally bases their decision-making in science. Mostly it's the rec fishermen who get the short end of the stick.

 

As for the "lies" comment...which I don't pretend to understand...did you know that studies show 70% of all statistics are made up?

[HB2]

A lot of restaurants are going belly up . For a lot of reasons on I see . It expensive now . Labor ,food costs , energy , taxes ,building maintenance, etc . 

What use to cost 25$ is now 60$ . And people go less . 

So restaurants can't make it up in volume so they rais prices and people go even less . A vicious circle scenario . Eddie Bauer going bankrupt . They rested their laurels on an American company with quality and changed to Chinese and foreign products 

 

 

Best deal out there for takeout as I see is a Wegmans sub . 

 

Large 16$ and it can feed my wife and I both . And if you build it right it's healthier for you . 

[LongLine]

I really tried to get back to WH outdoor decisions...oh well. 

 

Anyways: I'm more of a Whopper fan.  Both for food and catching them while fishing. 

 

I'm not a fan of windmills or solar panels especially if I have to pay for installation and /or if people use that space for outdoor activities. (hunting, fishing, observing nature, etc.)  If a private company wants to put panels on the top of their warehouse/factory/building and sell excess to the power company, then fine. I would not be a fan of building a nuclear power plant at Sandy Creek.

 

Statistics don't lie. Mathematical equations are firmly set.  The issue is whether true statistical methodology was applied. Look at what happened to the reported alewife numbers after more random places were included and encompassing both sides of the lake.  Yes, there was a milder winter BUT previous years did not count what was in Canadian water or in between the rigid sample paths. The same thing applies to national political polls...Who was asked? How were the questions really worded? (Were questions biased?) Were results significant? What assumptions were made? etc. 

 

COME ON SPRING!

[Gill-T]

I took one for the team today and completed a little drive to highlight how far away spring is and to hopefully dissuade anyone from booking a river charter before March. Pics are of lower Niagara (Lewiston/Youngstown)which is starting to lock up with ice and Wilson. Shore ice along entire Niagara County out to about 50’ fow. 

[fisherdude]

Super Bowl Sunday this questions a decision from the White House I believe through channels.

which halftime show would you choose Bad Bunny concert or to Turning point concert with Kid Rock and others?

I would pick the Turning point halftime show and my reason is not political I can't understand Spanish and I like country Rock music . I don't stream TV so I'm stuck with Bad Bunny. cleaning up from making wings  probably. 

Edited February 8 by fisherdude
.

[fisherdude]

39 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

I took one for the team today and completed a little drive to highlight how far away spring is and to hopefully dissuade anyone from booking a river charter before March. Pics are of lower Niagara (Lewiston/Youngstown)which is starting to lock up with ice and Wilson. Shore ice along entire Niagara County out to about 50’ fow. 

Cool winter pics . News said lake Erie is iced over which shuts down the lake effect Ontario South Shores is making ice in the East ends ice over been a record cold winner. 

[woody 184]

Still Awaiting your facts to back up Running your mouth 

[Gill-T]

Turn it down a notch Woody or another thread gets shut down. 

[HB2]

The numbers and statistics may not lie but theycan be interpreted differently by different people . And those interpretations may be  manipulated to set policy for someone's agenda .