heaviest LO King this year, how

[schreckstoff]

BW prediction: 33.7 lbs Bluffers (maybe Cobourg)

 

What do you think will be the biggest and from where?  
 

I definitely love Gills satellite pics and LLs puzzles but I am ready to be ON THE WATER!

 

 

 

 

 

[rolmops]

I don't expect anything over 31 pounds on the US side. What is the thing that makes the kings bigger on the Canadian side year after year? Do they add Canadian bacon strips to the water? Or do they keep them in big ponds and force feed them? Do they eat walleye instead of alewives? Whatever it is they do, please tell the DEC to do it on our side as well.

My prediction is 31 pounds tops, probably from the west end.

[GAMBLER]

9 hours ago, schreckstoff said:

BW prediction: 33.7 lbs Bluffers (maybe Cobourg)

 

What do you think will be the biggest and from where?  
 

I definitely love Gills satellite pics and LLs puzzles but I am ready to be ON THE WATER!

 

 

 

 

 

I would love to catch a king over 30 again!  It's been years.   I say 34.05lbs.  There was a 37 caught last June out of Olcott.  We will see!  My boat motor rebuild should be done very soon!  Can't wait!  

[Yankee Troller]

Our state doesn't care about big fish. If they cared my hope is they would share with us some type of study or experiment they're trying. They do a lot of great things when it comes to managing this fishery, contrary to many people's beliefs, but I have heard nothing from anyone when it comes down to trying to figure out why this is happening below. They don't mind tossing out theories, and we all can do that, but I would like to see a study or an experiment.

 

My biggest Salmon last year was 25lbs. That's unacceptable. To answer Brian's question, I would think we'll see a 38-40lb fish on the North shore. We've watched this monster class of Salmon the last two years at 2 & 3 years old. My hope is a few made it to 4yrs old.

 

For anyone who looks at the chart below and wonders what I'm doing. These are the 10th place fish in each LOC derby. I feel it's a good indicator when looking into the decreasing size of Salmon.

 

MEDIAN	Fall	Summer	Spring
2024	27.02	25.04	22.03
2023	27.05	26.02	21.10
2022	27.15	27.00	22.10
2021	29.03	28.04	24.10
2020	28.04	28.06	COVID
2019	29.12	27.15	21.01
2018	No Data	25.12	No Data
2017	30.08	27.09	21.11
2016	32.01	28.11	21.11
2015	29.02	25.15	20.12
2014	30.04	27.04	21.04
2013	33.04	32.01	26.00
2012	32.09	31.07	27.04
2011	32.04	29.00	23.14
2010	34.06	No Data	No Data
2009	31.15	26.02	No Data
2005	30.01	No Data	No Data
Average	30.06	27.46	22.49

Edited March 4 by Yankee Troller

[LongLine]

Thinking we're going to see a lot of 26-29 Lbr's but the money fish will be a 34 in the fall off the SR.  Lakers will probably be huge though.

 

Glad you like the puzzles.  Have to get past the next snowstorm before I get the boat ready tho.

[HB2]

There certainly was a lot of bait this past year from July on where I am 

And with the increase in bait the 2 years prior to that we would have 3 pretty good years in a row . I personally think that the first year fish need an abundant supply of bait available to jump start their 3 year growth span 

 

I guess we will have to wait and see .

 

[schreckstoff]

Mmmmmm Canadian bacon!

 RE: why biggest kings tend to come from the north shore- I continue to think the idea that the feeding and growth conditions are more optimal is the most likely contributor, like how the biggest fish always take the prime feeding spot in a stream. I know the idea of density dependent growth is not as fun to think about but if king density on the North Shore is on average lower than the south shore that also might account for some of the size differences . When the creels are done in the same year, aren’t the catch rates a little bit lower on the North Shore?

as a fish scientist, I am definitely curious about it., but you’re right Yankee I don’t think I have seen anything specific on size differences in any reports, other than the tagging data from years ago that showed a portion of the big Kings caught on the North Shore were US stocked

 

I bet if the angling community wanted more information on the age and source of the biggest kings from the derbys & tournaments, and they took it upon themselves to collect scale samples, an accurate length and weight, and even a tissue sample, I bet those samples would get worked up and data reported on. As Dr Demming noted “In God we trust, others bring data “ .

 

just a thought 

 

 

 

 

[GAMBLER]

37 minutes ago, schreckstoff said:

Mmmmmm Canadian bacon!

 RE: why biggest kings tend to come from the north shore- I continue to think the idea that the feeding and growth conditions are more optimal is the most likely contributor, like how the biggest fish always take the prime feeding spot in a stream. I know the idea of density dependent growth is not as fun to think about but if king density on the North Shore is on average lower than the south shore that also might account for some of the size differences . When the creels are done in the same year, aren’t the catch rates a little bit lower on the North Shore?

as a fish scientist, I am definitely curious about it., but you’re right Yankee I don’t think I have seen anything specific on size differences in any reports, other than the tagging data from years ago that showed a portion of the big Kings caught on the North Shore were US stocked

 

I bet if the angling community wanted more information on the age and source of the biggest kings from the derbys & tournaments, and they took it upon themselves to collect scale samples, an accurate length and weight, and even a tissue sample, I bet those samples would get worked up and data reported on. As Dr Demming noted “In God we trust, others bring data “ .

 

just a thought 

 

 

 

 

We used to have guys come to our weigh in at the Sandy Creek Shootout and collect scale samples and heads from fish after weigh in.  I can't remember if they were DEC or USGS guys.  They haven't been there the last couple of years.  

 

Regardless of the size this season, I highly doubt we will see the crazy catch rates we did last season.  It was great for everyone but it really put a dent in lake trout gear sales! 

[Yankee Troller]

2 hours ago, schreckstoff said:

Mmmmmm Canadian bacon!

 RE: why biggest kings tend to come from the north shore- I continue to think the idea that the feeding and growth conditions are more optimal is the most likely contributor, like how the biggest fish always take the prime feeding spot in a stream. I know the idea of density dependent growth is not as fun to think about but if king density on the North Shore is on average lower than the south shore that also might account for some of the size differences . When the creels are done in the same year, aren’t the catch rates a little bit lower on the North Shore?

as a fish scientist, I am definitely curious about it., but you’re right Yankee I don’t think I have seen anything specific on size differences in any reports, other than the tagging data from years ago that showed a portion of the big Kings caught on the North Shore were US stocked

 

I bet if the angling community wanted more information on the age and source of the biggest kings from the derbys & tournaments, and they took it upon themselves to collect scale samples, an accurate length and weight, and even a tissue sample, I bet those samples would get worked up and data reported on. As Dr Demming noted “In God we trust, others bring data “ .

 

just a thought 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm fairly certain the angling community (mostly charter captains) have taken samples for the DEC over the last few years, and we still have no data back from that. The DEC biologists frequent most major tournaments on the South shore collecting samples. What is being done with that? Would it be difficult to go the LOC banquet that's centrally located and grab samples off fish 1, 2, and 3 since they are there? Maybe I'm simple minded, but most of this is being done already. 

 

Let's not forget the LOC and Greater Ontario Salmon derby put a lot of people on the water that are looking for 1 big fish. There are far more people chasing that dream than lazy charter captains who are fine cleaning 10lb Salmon and heading back to the dock early. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy good fishing. I just want SOMEONE to give a **** about why these things keep getting smaller.

[Gator]

I give a sh$t. It's a fascinating scientific issue, and there's a wealth of theories. Unfortunately, with grant funding declining and the cuts reaching far, even NOAA, I suspect that it will remain a topic for conversation on this board for a long time. Just not enough juice for the squeeze. 

 

Maybe when I retire next year I will spearhead an initiative. My guess is that it's a lack of manpower and resources. Fisheries isn't my game (despite having worked in a Cornell ADK field station during college), but you're either always learning or never learning.

[Sweet Caroline]

My thought is we will have a good amount of 4 yr olds this year because the record 3 year old class we had last year. Could be some decent kings, compared to most years.  A few of these older fish should hit the leader board. Maybe 1 in 100 compared to 1 in 500 in other years lol

[Gill-T]

I think a big contributor to upper end predator sizes (walleye on Erie, salmon and steelhead) is the demise of Emerald Shiner populations. This small baitfish used to be everywhere in the upper water column and would serve to jump start growth in those species until they were big enough to target alewives.  Fish are starting from behind the eight ball now and have to play catch up. Steelhead are having to hunt deeper and deeper to find food. Steelhead are used to feeding up. 

[Lucky D]

Maybe select larger fish at the hatchery and take some salmon at different months years ago week caught salmon in november in front of salmon river, Don't take all the small kings that run early,

[Silver Fox]

On 3/5/2025 at 8:45 PM, Sweet Caroline said:

My thought is we will have a good amount of 4 yr olds this year because the record 3 year old class we had last year. Could be some decent kings, compared to most years.  A few of these older fish should hit the leader board. Maybe 1 in 100 compared to 1 in 500 in other years lol

IMO 4 year olds have been a thing of the past lately…..

[Yankee Troller]

18 hours ago, Lucky D said:

Maybe select larger fish at the hatchery and take some salmon at different months years ago week caught salmon in november in front of salmon river, Don't take all the small kings that run early,

 

You're not allowed to say that . Our biologist say there's no proof that breading large Salmon with large Salmon make large Salmon. They reference one study out West. God forbid they tried their own study. With Salmon sizes declining, and referencing the chart I posted earlier in this thread, I'd be curious if the sizes started declining faster when the hatchery started using jack Salmon in the breeding process.

[luckystrike]

12 minutes ago, Yankee Troller said:

 

You're not allowed to say that . Our biologist say there's no proof that breading large Salmon with large Salmon make large Salmon. They reference one study out West. God forbid they tried their own study. With Salmon sizes declining, and referencing the chart I posted earlier in this thread, I'd be curious if the sizes started declining faster when the hatchery started using jack Salmon in the breeding process.

I'm surprised a biologist would say there's no proof that breeding large salmon with large salmon make a large salmon. I guess it's possible but I think it most breeding programs select individuals with characteristics that you want for the best chance to get the characteristics that you want. 

Even natural selection generally favors larger stronger individuals to live and reproduce.

And of course, there are many factors that influence natural selection and future population characteristics.

[Yankee Troller]

7 minutes ago, luckystrike said:

I'm surprised a biologist would say there's no proof that breeding large salmon with large salmon make a large salmon. I guess it's possible but I think it most breeding programs select individuals with characteristics that you want for the best chance to get the characteristics that you want. 

Even natural selection generally favors larger stronger individuals to live and reproduce.

And of course, there are many factors that influence natural selection and future population characteristics.

 

Yup, he's real personable, and he seems to get irritated when you bring it up.

[LongLine]

2 hours ago, luckystrike said:

there are many factors that influence natural selection and future population characteristics.

Absolutely.  There are many factors beyond man's control BUT shouldn't those that can be controlled be controlled?  Seems to me that there is a lot of empirical proof on Big-O.  I'd like to see the statistical anova analysis that this biologist used to rule it out. 

[Lucky D]

Thats funny they would say that because in Texas they have a program called sharedlunker 13plus. if you catch a bass over 13 lbs  and loan it to them during the spawn jan thru march for our selective breeding program you are a legacy member the reason is to make more big  bass .Texas knows this n.y can't seem to grasp that concept.It is truly sad.

[rolmops]

On 3/9/2025 at 2:10 PM, Lucky D said:

Maybe select larger fish at the hatchery and take some salmon at different months years ago week caught salmon in november in front of salmon river, Don't take all the small kings that run early,

Last year, I spent about 3 hours looking at the kings that went into the concrete channel on their way to be used for egg taking.  Not for study but because it is a sight to behold and I came all the way from Rochester to see it. The great majority were mediocre sized fish between 15 and sometimes 20 pounds. Anything larger than that were very few and very far between. I clocked 30 minutes and saw only 2 very large fish come in , but the channel was loaded with mediocre fish. It would require the hatchery at least a few more days to select only the large specimens and even then I doubt if they would be able to get enough eggs to reach the required quota. In my opinion there should be fry from out west shipped over in order to get big ones into the mix. Maybe a variation that takes 4 or 5 years before they come in to spawn.

Edited March 10 by rolmops

[LongLine]

So how many eggs did they get this year and from how many fish?  Did they measure the fish (like they show in the SR tour video)?  What were the numbers?   It'd be so easy to avoid controversy by publishing the numbers.  What were the egg sies? 

[Big fat pike]

On 3/3/2025 at 9:57 PM, rolmops said:

I don't expect anything over 31 pounds on the US side. What is the thing that makes the kings bigger on the Canadian side year after year? Do they add Canadian bacon strips to the water? Or do they keep them in big ponds and force feed them? Do they eat walleye instead of alewives? Whatever it is they do, please tell the DEC to do it on our side as well.

My prediction is 31 pounds tops, probably from the west end.

Would be better off getting the dec at the hatchery to feed them gobies or to get whatever place that makes the food to mix in the remains of gobies

[rolmops]

6 hours ago, Big fat pike said:

Would be better off getting the dec at the hatchery to feed them gobies or to get whatever place that makes the food to mix in the remains of gobies

The problem with that is that gobies are warmish water bottom feeders (At least during the summer). The kings and most trout(except browns) like it cold  and they feed around the thermocline.

Do you have any suggestions as in how to get enough gobie supply for your idea ?

[LongLine]

Fish to be stocked are fed a special diet that is heavily monitored.  Fish are treated for diseases.  I remember a few years ago, an article connecting gobies to botulism.  Another stating that gobies often have a high heavy metal content due to eating mussels.  Heavy metals will disrupt a fish's immune system.  

[Yankee Troller]

2 minutes ago, LongLine said:

Fish to be stocked are fed a special diet....

 

 Ya, it's special alright! Special to the lowest bidding company that can supply the feed. Thank god some anglers had that stuff tested a few years back.