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Lucky13

2018 Stocking levels

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6 hours ago, Lucky13 said:

And Jerry, please show me some evidence of the cut being a budget matter, and if the budget were threatened why hasn't LOU raised the hue and cry and run to the

 

 

Lucky, I think you are confusing me with other peoples ideas/observations. I know this is not a budget matter because all the expenses remain constant , except for some less food when we cut stocking #'s. There is virtually  NO help to the budget.

   And some members of this LOU community has raised funds for new pumps donated  to  Altmar Hatchery already in the past.

 

Jerry

RUNNIN REBEL

 

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7 hours ago, Lucky13 said:

Somehow I don't see people going to the hassle it takes to get an MS and even a pHD as agents of the government

 

Some of us do take the time and expense to attend most every Great Lakes Fishery Commission Regional & National meetings both in US & Canada. And keep in constant contact with every agency involved personaly ever since.

 

Jerry

RUNNIN REBEL

 

 

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I would add that the biology of the heavy year class of age 5 alewives- reminants of the record 2012 hatch- will be present to drop eggs as age 6 and age 7 (god willing). Each female alewife of age is capable of dropping 60,000-100,000 eggs. That is a huge difference between the low value and high value- almost double.  The egg load is determined by fitness and age. Large fit alewives will drop almost double the amount of lesser age classes. The fatties being netted this spring are going to be pushing out another mega class if we have a mild winter. 

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7 hours ago, RUNNIN REBEL said:

 

 

Lucky, I think you are confusing me with other peoples ideas/observations. I know this is not a budget matter because all the expenses remain constant , except for some less food when we cut stocking #'s. There is virtually  NO help to the budget.

   And some members of this LOU community has raised funds for new pumps donated  to  Altmar Hatchery already in the past.

 

Jerry

RUNNIN REBEL

 

Sorry , Jerry, I had you and the Gambler mixed up, Getting old is a .....

 

But thanks for the help there!

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After all that is said and done…..I trust the DEC, MNR, and USGS scientists. And here’s why.  

2017 marks the 49th year DEC has been managing this Trout and Salmon Fishery. Fast Forward to Mid 70’s, five years before the Salmon River Hatchery came on line, and the health dept in NYS urged the DEC to stop stocking King Salmon due to contamination issues with Mirex and Dioxin. Still the DEC maintains a brood stock, and a year later when the decision after testing what P/P/M…and P/P/B mean to the human body of these chemicals stocking started up again…slowly, and then Mother nature as she always does tossed in a curve ball notably the winter of 1977. Back then said to be the harshest in 100 years, (But didn’t come close to (2014.15) for cold. And we had a massive die off of Alewife. The shore lines looked like the Pre salmon days.

But back then DEC wasn’t stocking millions of these fish, they didn’t have the capacity yet. And they were 10 years into the game and hadn’t had this type of hard down crush on the forage base to deal with….Then the 80’s, the Golden age of this fishery that some of us remember. Bait rebounded probably somewhat because the Predator numbers hadn’t been brought up to it’s peek.

In 1993 I am many of my colleagues sat in the Cornell Cooperative Extension building, I was representing the Western Lake Ontario Charter Boat Assoc. and at the time had a seat on the NYS Sport Fishing Council and we listened to Bob Lange tell us DEC was reducing stocking to 1 million salmon from what was at the time about 2.1 M. They determined the forage base was impacted hard again, and the results of their trawls (with much less sophisticated tools then they have today) mandated their management plan to make this move. Maybe/probably they were a bit over compensating as at the very same moment Lake Michigan was suffering through their second crash of salmon …

The mid to late 90’s was a struggle, we fished hard, we caught salmon, we caught some very big salmon into the early 2000’s…we POUNDED the steelhead because they were there and easily caught to satisfy our customers, but come the millennium the bait studies showed a resurgence of alewife, and the DEC certain of their data restored the stocking back to capacity, and many years even tossed in supplemental stockings of kings.

2016, now the most modern techniques and technology in use by USGS, DEC, and MNR they see a warning sign again. But IMHO don’t jump into a drastic cut in half decision, but a more calculated one. 2017 data by the same teams and technologies confirms the warning they started to discover last spring, yet these same tools techniques and scientists see a light in the tunnel. Yet they continue to make a calculated management decision, because that’s what men and women of science MUST do.

For the most part the past 17 years has been highly successful on the lake and the tribs. We certainly had another nasty curve in 2014 with significant die off of adult Steelhead. Reports on them in the lake seem much better this year let’s hope that’s true. This essay is a chronology of the past 49 years. Again only speaking for myself, but the men and women of these three agencies have more than earned my respect. Have they made some errors or mistakes…for sure. Who of us hasn’t in our work. Are they going to error on the conservative side because they are managing for five years down the road not just next year….yes thank God for that.

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So in checking with biologist with alewife experience, egg totals for Lake Ontario 5 year olds is more like 30,000 per fish. When I inquired about wether age structure and therefore egg production estimates along with average winter temps could help form a mathematical model that could be used to manage salmon stocking levels. I was told it is more complicated because large alewives predate on younger alewives. There is a scenario where if you have too many adult alewives, the YOY suffer. 

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This has to be one of the most interesting and informative threads in a long time and it is good to see logic mixed with passion done in a civilized way:)

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Pray for a warm winter to keep the good times going

 

The bait balls are looking better and better !

 

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"Shifts in the diet of Lake Ontario alewife in response to ecosystem change

Journal of Great Lakes Research

By:
T.J. Stewart, W.G. Sprules, and R. O'Gorman

Abstract

In the 1990s, the Lake Ontario ecosystem was dramatically altered due to continued invasions of exotic species including dreissenid mussels and predatory cladocerans. We describe the diet and biomass of prey in the stomachs of adult (≥ 109 mm TL) and sub-adult (< 109 mm TL) alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in 2004 and 2005 across seasons and depths and compare our results to data from 1972 to 1988. During 2004 and 2005, adult alewife consumed primarily zooplankton prey at bottom depth zones < 70 m and primarily Mysis at bottom depth zones > 70 m. Mysis dominated the diets of adult alewife in all seasons except during the summer of 2004 when zooplankton dominated. Mysis dominated the diets of sub-adult alewife during early and late spring and zooplankton dominated the diets in summer and fall. Bythotrephes and Cercopagis were observed in the diets of both sub-adult and adult alewife. Diporeia was observed only rarely in adult alewife diets. The biomass of prey in alewife stomachs varied seasonally and increased with bottom depth for adult alewife. Alewife diets in 2004–2005 differed from those in 1972 and 1988 with an increase in the prevalence of Mysis, and a decline in the prevalence of zooplankton. The biomass of prey in adult alewife stomachs declined in 2004 and 2005 compared to 1972 and 1988, at bottom depth zones < 70 m but not at bottom depth zones > 70 m suggesting reduced food availability closer to shore. We hypothesize that consumption levels at the shallower depth zones, as indicated by very low biomass of prey in alewife stomachs, may not be sufficient to sustain alewife growth. The increased prevalence of Mysis and common occurrence of predatory cladocerans in the diet of alewife means that alewife have shifted to a higher trophic position. "

 

Alewife eat just about anything that is the right size, but the baby alewife pass through the size where they are consumed by the adults relatively quickly, based on what Brian Weidel has presented in the past couple of years.  If adult alewife were a significant predator of larval or YOY alewife, why didn't they eat themselves out of existence before the salmon were introduced?

Edited by Lucky13

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https://www.glsc.usgs.gov/keywords/alewife

 

You may need to go to a college library to read the journal articles in full.  Can be frustrating to have to pay 35 bucks for an article that was originally publicly funded research, but, at least in the Rochester area, I know that U of R Science library and SUNY at Brockport have most all the Journals in their stacks.

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3 hours ago, Lucky13 said:

"  If adult alewife were a significant predator of larval or YOY alewife, why didn't they eat themselves out of existence before the salmon were introduced?

 

Because in the 80's Lake Ontario was brown Cladaphora soup. Alewives could swim in place and be fed. 

 

Larval predation i believe....YOY no. 

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So I went to the meeting today. A lot of great data, including presentation of hypothetical data with different alewife hatches and the potential impacts. Those guys were really impressive with how prepared they were. I really do think that Andy and Steve have our best interests at heart.

My only regret is that more people didn't show. There is no better setting to directly discuss the management of our fishery- literally the 2 most important players in the whole lake were fielding questions for over an hour.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United

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AMEN Abe...I thought it was a great question and answer discussion with intelligent thoughtful questions and honest answers. We saw the result of the last three years of wild fish hatching success, that has to be factored into the equation. I think the important thing I get out of these talks is it's evident the DEC and MNR are always striving for better ways to study the science and improve their process. It's never going to be a 1+1 = 2 in dealing with all the possible variables to the equation...especially dealing with mother nature.

 

 

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12 hours ago, rdebadts said:

So I went to the meeting today. A lot of great data, including presentation of hypothetical data with different alewife hatches and the potential impacts. Those guys were really impressive with how prepared they were. I really do think that Andy and Steve have our best interests at heart.

My only regret is that more people didn't show. There is no better setting to directly discuss the management of our fishery- literally the 2 most important players in the whole lake were fielding questions for over an hour.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United

Yes, it was a lot of the choir, but a much better turnout than last year when much of last night's information was first presented.  You know they are not pulling punches, didn't sugarocoat the answer to Matt about the next couple of years being very possibly the same scenario, and spoke directly to a lot of what has been posted here and on other websites.  Now it becomes necessary to figure out how to convince the naysayers that these guys are ONLY interested in maintaining the Number one fishery in the Lower 48!

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12 hours ago, rdebadts said:

So I went to the meeting today. A lot of great data, including presentation of hypothetical data with different alewife hatches and the potential impacts. Those guys were really impressive with how prepared they were. I really do think that Andy and Steve have our best interests at heart.

My only regret is that more people didn't show. There is no better setting to directly discuss the management of our fishery- literally the 2 most important players in the whole lake were fielding questions for over an hour.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United

It was a seminar explaining their actions and why they believe its the prudent thing to do.....attending does nothing to change the out come or their minds..... 

Edited by dvdegeorge

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It was a seminar explaining their actions and why they believe its the prudent thing to do.....attending does nothing to change the out come or their minds..... 

Yeah, but they don't HAVE to answer to us. They can do whatever they want. Isn't it a good thing that they are involving us? They clearly care what we think- they answered questions for over an hour, and have incorporated things that fisherman have suggested in the past. The more involved and intelligent we are, the more they will listen to us.


The Fishin' Physician Assistant

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I could be wrong but from what I heard last night I get the idea the cuts will more or less stay until they get rid of the wholes in the year classes.  They didn't say that in anyway but it just the feeling I get from the answer as to what would it take to start reducing the 20 percent cut.

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19 minutes ago, rdebadts said:


Yeah, but they don't HAVE to answer to us. They can do whatever they want. Isn't it a good thing that they are involving us? They clearly care what we think- they answered questions for over an hour, and have incorporated things that fisherman have suggested in the past. The more involved and intelligent we are, the more they will listen to us.


The Fishin' Physician Assistant

That's a theory I don't believe .....they will do what THEY believe is right....I'm not saying they are right or wrong just stating that attending the meeting was informational and not going to have a bearing on what they do in the future

You can choose to believe they are taking to heart what you want but it's like a parent listening to a kid explain why they should be allowed to go to a party....the parent listens but in the end they will do what THEY think is best 

 

Edited by dvdegeorge

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So for those that didn't attend and have not heard Lake Ontario is deplete of a couple age classes of alewives due to severe cold winters in 2013 and 2014 stocking needs to be cut until we get those 2 yrs of age class out of the system and have a more balanced alewife population. 20% cut in stocking is the way they see to do this.....THE END

Edited by dvdegeorge

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Good flow in streams this year should hopefully bolster natural repro. Pray for good lovin'

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That's a theory I don't believe .....they will do what THEY believe is right....I'm not saying they are right or wrong just stating that attending the meeting was informational and not going to have a bearing on what they do in the future
You can choose to believe they are taking to heart what you want but it's like a parent listening to a kid explain why they should be allowed to go to a party....the parent listens but in the end they will do what THEY think is best 
 

Bingo!
BTW I had a Spanish class meeting for my kid on a trip to Costa Rica last evening. Just in case anyone wants to bash me for not being there, but it doesn't seem to make a difference anyways.

Lake Ontario salmon fishing charters

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Let's see now, they are still stocking 4.3 million fish, plus what is going in from natural reproduction, I would think that would be a positive message to communicate, thjs is not a draconian 46% like back in the Lange days.  This in spite of recommendations from many scientists on both sides of the border, and many on the Binational stakeholder's group from the other side of the border, that the cuts were not deep enough to minimize the risk.  And what motive other than improvement of the fishery would there be for putting less fish in?  The best way to crash the king totally if they just wanted to go with native species would be to stock more and more, let them remove the alewife, and they would crash not long after.  Any food pyramid that becomes top heavy with predators will collapse, or the health and condition of the predators will decline significantly.  So, yes, I think the message was that these cuts will need to be maintained for at least 2019, too, perhaps 2020, but then upward adjustment becomes possible, although Steve did say he could make no promises because they need to factor in variables that can't be forecast.

 

The paper is good, (http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/fish_marine_pdf/loalewifeupdate2017.pdf) but it was augmented with scenario slides that show the probable effects of good and poor YOY hatches, and the discussion.  Another 2 bad winters in a row situation might be disastrous, even if there was enough big chow, spawning for future year classes could be severely curtailed.

 

I didn't hear anyone bashing anyone for not attending, just bemoaning that more folks did not avail themselves of the opportunity to hear the data and arguments first hand.  Personally, I'm very glad we have scientists of this caliber making the decisions, my kids and grandkids may be also be able to enjoy the best fishing in the USA after I'm gone.

 

It would probably help from a business standpoint if people focused on the glass being 90 % full ( or even 80% if you are a natural reproduction denier) rather than it being 10% empty!

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