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Is there hope ?


HB2

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Let's keep current boy and girls , It has been rebranded as "climate catastrophe " ,trying to get more people believing with a more drastic phrase ! As far as more water in the upper lakes flooding Ontario , that has a minimal affect compared to the Dam on the STL River. Remove that and the water levels return to what Mother Nature wants. The upper Niagara River at Buffalo is a natural dam that slows down the outflow of Erie considerably. The extra water will eventually make it to O but at a greatly reduced rate. Just think of where the Niagara starts as a large funnel , as that is what it is . It slows down all the excess water and backs it up into Erie .  As far as helping or hindering the fishery , a certain Captain that post video reports on FB went into great detail about the water level and his belief was the higher level at this moment helps the fishery as new nutrients are added by virgin soil erosion. And yes it's a shame for anyone living or having a business on the shores

Edited by Bozeman Bob
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4 hours ago, jimski2 said:

Today Lake Michigan Homes will be falling into the water as nine foot waves wash out the sand dunes the homes are built on. The demolition and cleanup costs are being burdened on the homeowners.


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Is this a manmade problem?  Where are the controls on the inflow and outflow of Lake Michigan?  As Dr. Wilcox has so eloquently stated in the past, when you build a house on a floodplain, you have to expect that sometimes the floodplain will be on the house.  And if you choose to build on sand dunes, why should the general public be expected to pay for your loss if that oh so stable sand washes away?.

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2 hours ago, Bozeman Bob said:

 As far as more water in the upper lakes flooding Ontario , that has a minimal affect compared to the Dam on the STL River. Remove that and the water levels return to what Mother Nature wants. 

The lake was subject to more frequent high water events and more frequent low water events, many at nearly the magnitude of the current "high input from the immediate watershed coupled with much higher inflow from the upper great lakes" situation, prior to construction of the St Lawrence  Seaway.  The Sheet pile and concrete wall barriers along Edgemere Drive were built prior to the Seaway construction.  Plan 2014 was formulated to allow more natural high and low water events than under the previous scenarios.  If it had been rolled out during the drought years of the 2000's in the UGL, everyone would have been P+Ming about not being able to get their boats out in the late summer.  An unfortunate juxtaposition of events that many of us warned of at the public meetings prior to the 2014 implementation, (or at least pointed out the needs for funding for compensation, because many of the landowners could reasonably call the impacts of 2014 a "taking,"  and the plan incorporated the somewhat bogus logic that the lower water enjoyed since the Seaway was built had an economic benefit that accrued to property owners earlier, and so negated the necessity of compensation for current damages.)

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2 hours ago, Bozeman Bob said:

  As far as helping or hindering the fishery , a certain Captain that post video reports on FB went into great detail about the water level and his belief was the higher level at this moment helps the fishery as new nutrients are added by virgin soil erosion.

 

This was what I wondered about . It was the original reason for my post . 

 

Great minds think alike !! :-) :-) :-)

 

I think also the flushing out of wetlands brings nutrient rich water . 

 

But it's pure speculation on my part . 

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Brian - Thanx for the reply.  very insightful.  Unfortunately research often gives rise to more questions.  I'm curious about the "condition" of the alewife.  I see in the '18 report on 61/2" alewife growth graphs of spring vs fall, that these fish went from approx. 31.5 g to 33 g.  I've read that fish farmers usually plan for their fish to consume 1-5% of their weight in feed daily so I have to ask if sampled alewife had substantial flea tails in them, hence skew the numbers?  i.e any data on the typical weight of those stomach contents?

 

 

Guys - As to "climate catastrophe" please remember that 2000-2012 Michigan/Huron had a period of very low water and even National Geographic ran an article about the lakes drying up due to "climate warming."  Also consider we had a very wet month followed by a very dry month followed by a wet month followed by a dry month.  Now consider the Lake Ontario Drainage Basin and all the heavy precipitation that went south of us. i.e southern tier, SE of us, etc.  It didn't drain into lake Ontario - It went to the Chesapeake Drainage basin!   Further consider that the International Lake Superior Board of Control   (which controls the level of Lake Superior on the St. Mary's river system) on April 3rd 2019, after receiving permission from the IJC, opened their gates which were normally set at 1 gate 1/4 open at that time of year to 2 full open gates and keep it there in anticipation of late summer maintenance. 

 

We don't need to wait 2 yrs for Superior's water to get here simply because hydraulically, Superior pushes Huron's water which pushes Erie's water here.  That process is a lot faster than waiting for Superior's water to get here.  I believe we had the big spike in water level in June.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

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The Ontario Hydro people opened a new twelve foot tunnel under the city of Niagara Falls, ON a while back to supply its Power Plant. Since the tunnel is a above the the Falls control structures has its effect on Lake Ontario water level been calculated?

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It has no effect on discharge from  the Niagara because it comes out of the Niagara into the tunnel and then returns to the Niagara after it is used for generation.  It's not like it gets removed from the system, sent down the Alleghany or some other non GL river, it just gets used for power generation and then returned to the river. 

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Let's keep current boy and girls , It has been rebranded as "climate catastrophe " ,trying to get more people believing with a more drastic phrase ! As far as more water in the upper lakes flooding Ontario , that has a minimal affect compared to the Dam on the STL River. Remove that and the water levels return to what Mother Nature wants. The upper Niagara River at Buffalo is a natural dam that slows down the outflow of Erie considerably. The extra water will eventually make it to O but at a greatly reduced rate. Just think of where the Niagara starts as a large funnel , as that is what it is . It slows down all the excess water and backs it up into Erie .  As far as helping or hindering the fishery , a certain Captain that post video reports on FB went into great detail about the water level and his belief was the higher level at this moment helps the fishery as new nutrients are added by virgin soil erosion. And yes it's a shame for anyone living or having a business on the shores

The Niagara River is a river, not a funnel. When the water level in a river goes higher, it transports more cubic feet per second. In a funnel it would stay the same.


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2 hours ago, rolmops said:

In a funnel it would stay the same.

Sorry, but not true.  As the level in the funnel goes down, (just as in any tank being drained from the bottom) the pressure from above becomes less & the velocity of the flow slows down. Same as with siphoning off the bottom of a full tank vs siphoning off the bottom of a near empty tank. (That's why in a zahn cup, you must use exactly the same level of liquid in order to compare viscosities)

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

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In case anyone looked up the drainage basins, the Lk Michigan's drainage basin on it's west side only extends about 1 1/2 miles inland.  All those heavy snows went down the Ohio, Missouri & Mississippi rivers as well as filled a lot of inland lakes.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

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Quote

Rolmops

 Uhhh no I did not say it was a funnel. I did say THINK of it as a large funnel , there is a difference. It does slow the outflow as more water is trying to enter it and due to the shallow and  narrow entrance it backs up. Yes if it was a tunnel and had a max capacity it would be more pronounced. It is not . If that [ Roundhouse to  just below the International Train Bridge ] section was 3 times as wide and deep would Erie drain quicker and more water then enter Ontario ?

Edited by Bozeman Bob
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On 12/4/2019 at 6:58 PM, LongLine said:

Brian - Thanx for the reply.  very insightful.  Unfortunately research often gives rise to more questions.  I'm curious about the "condition" of the alewife.  I see in the '18 report on 61/2" alewife growth graphs of spring vs fall, that these fish went from approx. 31.5 g to 33 g.  I've read that fish farmers usually plan for their fish to consume 1-5% of their weight in feed daily so I have to ask if sampled alewife had substantial flea tails in them, hence skew the numbers?  i.e any data on the typical weight of those stomach contents?

 

 

Guys - As to "climate catastrophe" please remember that 2000-2012 Michigan/Huron had a period of very low water and even National Geographic ran an article about the lakes drying up due to "climate warming."  Also consider we had a very wet month followed by a very dry month followed by a wet month followed by a dry month.  Now consider the Lake Ontario Drainage Basin and all the heavy precipitation that went south of us. i.e southern tier, SE of us, etc.  It didn't drain into lake Ontario - It went to the Chesapeake Drainage basin!   Further consider that the International Lake Superior Board of Control   (which controls the level of Lake Superior on the St. Mary's river system) on April 3rd 2019, after receiving permission from the IJC, opened their gates which were normally set at 1 gate 1/4 open at that time of year to 2 full open gates and keep it there in anticipation of late summer maintenance. 

 

We don't need to wait 2 yrs for Superior's water to get here simply because hydraulically, Superior pushes Huron's water which pushes Erie's water here.  That process is a lot faster than waiting for Superior's water to get here.  I believe we had the big spike in water level in June.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

Hey Tom,

 

Good thought, but only true to a limited extent. Hydrostatic pressure diffuses rather quickly in an open system like the Great Lakes. Think about a flash flood. There's a lag between an influx of water upstream and the flooding downstream. Or alternatively, the Genesee River gauges, which reflect the non-linearity of the system. After a storm, guys are calculating how much time they have before the river blows out. You can watch it happen in real time. All great points to think about though.

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3 hours ago, Gator said:

 

Hey Tom,

 

Good thought, but only true to a limited extent. Hydrostatic pressure diffuses rather quickly in an open system like the Great Lakes. Think about a flash flood. There's a lag between an influx of water upstream and the flooding downstream. Or alternatively, the Genesee River gauges, which reflect the non-linearity of the system. After a storm, guys are calculating how much time they have before the river blows out. You can watch it happen in real time. All great points to think about though.

Another illustration is the Brookfield announcements of flow on the Salmon River.  They open the dam at x time, the outflow reaches Altmar at x+1 hours, Pineville at x+2 hours, Pulaski at x+3 hours, and the estuary at x+4 hours.  The pressures in the river change before the level comes up, we could always tell it was going to go up in the winter because the fish would get active and bite before the rise, but the levels do not rise in  reaction to that pressure until the water actually arrives.  Why time of travel studies are conducted, to determine how long it will take the additional water to get to various points in a system.

 

Also, in a closed system, the velocity will increase to increase the discharge.  This is why the St Lawrence Board of Control can discharge at a much higher rate when there is ice cover on the river, the ice closes the system so the velocities, and the associated discharge, can be increased without the accompanying rise in stage that would flood the River and the " ponds" downstream in an open system.  Pray for early and late ice this winter!

Edited by Lucky13
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I'm not a  brainiac like some of you Einstein's out there but I do know one thing. 

 

If they aren't letting out the maximum amount of water when ever they can  in preparation for spring run off , they are lying to us and are full of **** , which I think is the case. 

 

But will it all make the fishing better ? 

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1 hour ago, HB2 said:

If they aren't letting out the maximum amount of water when ever they can  in preparation for spring run off , they are lying to us and are full of **** , which I think is the case. 

Totally agree with you HB.  

 

Gat' & Luck - agree but those are  narrow channels. Even at the Genny, you can have a wall of water washing fishermen off the banks when they open the gates.   I'm thinking more along the lines of water seeking it's own level in large bodies very fast.  Example being during a good storm seeing the water rise 22" at St Vincent with a corresponding drop at Rochester.  But when wind dies, in just a couple hours the water level returns to where it was. Seems to me (& I could be wrong) we had a steady rise in water level then all of a sudden we had a much bigger than normal "whamo" all over the lake.  The when the water dropped a couple inches in Oswego, it also dropped same in Olcott, not a week or month later. 

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

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19 hours ago, Traveling Circus said:

Yaaaaa......cuz a long cold winter is so good for Alewives.........

Everyone has different priorities.  A long cold winter will definitely facilitate draining the pond for the shoreline property owners.  But if it means a couple more sammins in yer box, let's let them keep flooded!  Like the "why did they drop it in May-June", oh, well, Montreal was under 10 feet of water, but lets make it 14 to dry out the north coast!

 

I'm not clear on why they have been lowering it lately though, unless to make it possible for the last of the ships to get through before it closes for the winter.

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