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Lake level news.


rolmops

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On Monday 3-19 at 0.700 AM the flood gates at Massena will be opened. That should bring the lake level down to normal. This would be a bad time to go fishing in the Saint Laurence. Let's just hope that there will be no drought this summer.

Edited by rolmops
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We have a lot of snow on the ground up here, and could get another 12-15 inches this week. It snowed all night last night and is supposed to continue snowing until Thursday. Winter is still in full swing in northern NY.

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A bit more on the topic: 

STATE BRIEFS
Dam floodgates to open to drain excess Lake Ontario water

MASSENA – Floodgates are being opened at a New York Power Authority dam in Massena to spill excess water from Lake Ontario into the Saint Lawrence River.

The gates at Long Sault (SOO) Dam are scheduled to open at 7 a.m. Monday.
The power authority said there will be rapidly changing river flows downstream.
Outflows from Lake Ontario are established weekly by the International Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Board.
The decision to open the floodgates Monday is in response to higher than normal water levels and ice conditions on Lake Ontario.

The spilling may continue through March 23.

Heavy spring rains last year filled Lake Ontario to a record high level, resulting in extensive shoreline flooding.
Officials said opening dam floodgates would have worsened floods that were also occurring downstream.

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1 hour ago, jimski2 said:

Lake Superior is +6 inches above 3/1/2017 now. Michigan/Huron Lakes Level .+10 inches above 3/1/2017 level. Realize no matter what the Commision says, all that water is coming down to Lake Ontario.

That is true,but now we making room for that water ,besides the lake Superior water takes a long time before it gets here.

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No need to look that far West.  Lake Erie is higher than last year.  The water coming over the falls is going to be more than last year.  A wet spring will mean severe flooding again...........

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Last spring Canadian Hydro put into service a twelve foot tunnel under the City of Niagara Falls, ON to generate more power for Canada. That must have another flow calculation for Lake Ontario. It is what it is, prepare for this season and get floating docks to handle whatever happens now.

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We had a banner year for catching fish last year, no matter what the height of LakeO was!!, although I wouldn’t wish the land owners of LakeO another pain staking year of basement and land lost to high water, Where’s Al Gore and his global warming?? We should be worrying about not enough water??:thinking:

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40 minutes ago, jimski2 said:

Last spring Canadian Hydro put into service a twelve foot tunnel under the City of Niagara Falls, ON to generate more power for Canada. That must have another flow calculation for Lake Ontario. It is what it is, prepare for this season and get floating docks to handle whatever happens now.

  They are regulated and the same amount of water that was diverted before this tunnel was put into operation is by passing the falls. 50% over and 50% to the feeder systems. The only way they regulate the actual water going into Ontario is through the dam above the falls and that is more of a diversion than dam, as it only goes about 1/4 or less of the way to the other side.I believe when they shut the doors on that its at night and that's so more water is forced into the feeder tunnels on both sides of the river. They don't do it in the day so as to let more water go over the falls for the tourist to see.

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3 hours ago, jimski2 said:

Last spring Canadian Hydro put into service a twelve foot tunnel under the City of Niagara Falls, ON to generate more power for Canada. That must have another flow calculation for Lake Ontario. It is what it is, prepare for this season and get floating docks to handle whatever happens now.

Where did this water come from?  Is it coming from somewhere other than Lake Erie, or the upper Niagara river?  Unless it has been sourced from somewhere completely unrelated to the existing system, it is water that was going over the falls before and will have no effect on the overall water budget.  They take the water out of the river, run it through the turbines, and discharge it back to the river.  Net change = 0!  

 

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From IJC< 2 days ago:

 

Outflows from Lake Ontario Break February Record, Water Levels Gradually Improving

2018/03/13

 

The average Lake Ontario outflow during the month of February was the highest in recorded history.  Historical records start in 1900 and include outflows that occurred both prior to and since the beginning of regulation in 1960.  A stable ice cover in the St. Lawrence River allowed Plan 2014 to increase outflow under the ice, and as a result, Lake Ontario levels have fallen below those recorded at this time in 2017.

Plan 2014 continues to prescribe near-record outflows in response to above-average levels of both Lake Ontario and the upper Great Lakes.  Following temporary flow reductions during the extreme cold weather at the start of the year that saw ice form quickly on the St. Lawrence River, outflows were quickly increased thereafter, to the maximum possible without causing flooding on Lake St. Louis near Montreal.

Basin conditions allowed Plan 2014 to prescribe record high outflows in February, even while Lake Ontario remained below  Criterion H14 &rdquo;trigger&rdquo; levels. In instances when Lake Ontario reaches its high water trigger level, criterion H14 gives the board the authority to deviate from Plan 2014 in order to provide all possible relief to riparian property and businesses upstream and downstream. However, the use of this authority must still consider the effects of outflows on all interests, including the risk of flooding on Lake Ontario, the risk of flooding downstream and the risk of ice jams in the St. Lawrence River.

Currently the water level of Lake Ontario is 74.96 m (245.93 ft), which is 30 cm (11.8 in) above average, and 3 cm (1.2 in) below last year.  The level of Lake St. Louis near Montreal is now 54 cm (21.3 in) above average and 26 cm (10.2 in) above its level of a year ago.  Water levels on the upper Great Lakes, Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River are forecast to remain above average moving into the spring.  As a result, Plan 2014 will continue to release high outflows taking into consideration all interests throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system.     

The Board notes that, while Lake Ontario remains well above average, historically, water levels in winter have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak later in spring.  Weather and hydrologic conditions play a much greater role than water regulation in influencing water levels, and while impossible to predict, the probability of a repeat of last spring’s exceptional rains and subsequent high water levels is low.  Nonetheless, extreme conditions may occur in any given year, so shoreline property and business owners, and local government officials should always be prepared for a full range of water levels on Lake Ontario at any given time in the future.

The Board, in conjunction with its staff, continues to monitor and reassess conditions on an ongoing basis. Information on hydrologic conditions, water levels and outflows, including graphics and photos, are available on the Board’s website and posted to the Board’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/InternationalLakeOntarioStLawrenceRiverBoard (English).
 

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I think the bottom line is:

"Weather and hydrologic conditions play a much greater role than water regulation in influencing water levels, and while impossible to predict, the probability of a repeat of last spring’s exceptional rains and subsequent high water levels is low. "

 

Preliminary climate data for March at the Buffalo NWS office indicates 1.63 inches of rain, so far.  2.12" in Rochester, 0.9" in Watertown.  So we have ~12 inches to go in the rest of this month and next month.  That's a lot of rain to hit the 14" reported as causing the problems last year, which, although the non-scientific refuse to hear it, was indicated to have been enough to cause the problems that occurred whether the Hydro project was in on the St Lawrence or not.  And let us not forget our neighbors in Montreal who were under even greater amounts of water than LO.

 

It might be possible to make a lot of money selling hard hats to some of you guys so you'll have yer heads protected when  the sky falls.  ;)      The new March Madness! 

 

 

Edited by Lucky13
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3 hours ago, pap said:

Where’s Al Gore and his global warming?? We should be worrying about not enough water??

Climate change scenarios speak to major changes in perceived patterns and long term trends.  Three Bad Northeasters in 3 weeks in New England, and they are not out of the woods yet looking like another one next week, highest measured average global temperatures in how many of the last 10 years, near disappearance of glaciers in Alaska, shrinking of the polar ice caps, rise in sea level (why isn't the Guvment  draining the ocean faster?), oh, and ~14" of rain in a 2 month period (March-April 2017) when 7" is the long term average, these could be argued to be major changes in perceived patterns and long term trends.   Yes it is inconvenient if the remedy is vehicles where mileage is not measured in gallons per mile, or we have to go to windmills out in the Lake and Ocean, so maybe its easier to just deny the symptoms.

 

I can just imagine the manure storm if they drain too much water and then we have a dry spring, and the big boats can't launch for not enough water in May and June.  I'm sure the Board of Control would greatly appreciate it if whoever out there has a functioning crystal ball  would loan it to them!!!

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9 hours ago, Lucky13 said:

Climate change scenarios speak to major changes in perceived patterns and long term trends.  Three Bad Northeasters in 3 weeks in New England, and they are not out of the woods yet looking like another one next week, highest measured average global temperatures in how many of the last 10 years, near disappearance of glaciers in Alaska, shrinking of the polar ice caps, rise in sea level (why isn't the Guvment  draining the ocean faster?), oh, and ~14" of rain in a 2 month period (March-April 2017) when 7" is the long term average, these could be argued to be major changes in perceived patterns and long term trends.   Yes it is inconvenient if the remedy is vehicles where mileage is not measured in gallons per mile, or we have to go to windmills out in the Lake and Ocean, so maybe its easier to just deny the symptoms.

 

I can just imagine the manure storm if they drain too much water and then we have a dry spring, and the big boats can't launch for not enough water in May and June.  I'm sure the Board of Control would greatly appreciate it if whoever out there has a functioning crystal ball  would loan it to them!!!

 

You keep believing all that BS, it’s all in cycles, just cause man kind hasn’t been on planet earth long enough doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, the earths crust tells a difference story. No I’m not college educated and I can’t baffle you with bullshyt words I don’t even know how to pronounce let alone say. Some day I’ll buy ya a snow cone on or near the equator. :lol:

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You keep believing all that BS, it’s all in cycles, just cause man kind hasn’t been on planet earth long enough doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, the earths crust tells a difference story. No I’m not college educated and I can’t baffle you with bullshyt words I don’t even know how to pronounce let alone say. Some day I’ll buy ya a snow cone on or near the equator. 


Sent from my SM-N950U using Lake Ontario United mobile app

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Hey Lucky 13' m with you. i'm seeing climate change in my lifetime if others don't  they are in denial . So where do we go from here??  

I'm very worried about the future of our Great Lakes fishing. Seems to me our goverment should be engaged in whats happening in the Great Lakes.More then 20% of the fresh water the entire planet We are at

a

 

Lakes

 

hey

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An additional ten inches of water flowing in the St. Mary's and Detroit Rivers will have an effect on Lake Erie levels. It dos not compute that less water will enter Lake Ontario no matter what the long winded  publicists try to delay action.

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12 hours ago, pap said:

 

You keep believing all that BS, it’s all in cycles, just cause man kind hasn’t been on planet earth long enough doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, the earths crust tells a difference story. No I’m not college educated and I can’t baffle you with bullshyt words I don’t even know how to pronounce let alone say. Some day I’ll buy ya a snow cone on or near the equator. :lol:

All of the things I listed have recently happened or are happening.  Maybe all just odd coincidence, maybe something is actually happening.  Maybe you want to get a chin strap for your hard hat!

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I’m with Papa on this. I believe the earth is constantly evolving and has been for ever. I don’t believe we have a big impact on that. Mother Earth don’t care what we think the she should be doing. She does her own thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United

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